COVID-19 and Secession Post two

I don't need to know until early July to start work on my Texas secession book if it appears that Donald Trump is not getting re-elected. On the other hand, secession movements will likely start gaining strength if it becomes really obvious that Trump isn't going to be re-elected. So the earlier I can figure out whether Trump is going to be re-elected or not the better.

I am still struggling with this. I have a couple other projects that are absorbing much of my time so I don't need to be working on Texas secession until I know it is going to happen. I think that there are two things to consider.

The following is an issue only if some treatment doesn't show up. There are anti-virals being tested and there might be one or two that works. Even if one is found, it remains to be seen if it is that effective and can be made available in large quantities and supplied quickly enough. If they can only supply enough for 5 or 10 percent of the cases it will have limited usefulness to stop a pandemic. It will help, but it might just slow the progression of the pandemic.

Vaccines will become available, but I think they won't be available for sometime, long after things have gotten fairly bad.

FIRST THING

I am beginning to believe Trump is not going to be re-elected. There is evidence that indicates that Trump is doing well in the polls and his approval ratings are jumped up significantly.

However, things are still early in this pandemic outbreak. The pandemic is starting to reach the rural areas and smaller towns. Take for instance this city.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/us/albany-georgia-coronavirus/index.html

Dougherty County has 85,000 people and have close to the number of Fulton County with one million people.  Rural areas don't have really good health facilities or don't have any.

The governor of Georgia who has resisted stay at home measures is now claiming that he didn't know asymptomatic COVID-19 individuals could spread coronavirus until just recently, which I don't think is going to be believed except by the most credulous.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/georgia-gov-brian-kemp-admits-he-just-learned-asymptomatic-people-n1174976

There is Arizona which isn't taking coronavirus seriously.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/02/arizona-coronavirus-pawn-shops-golf-courses-essential-businesses-160043

I think when these other states get really impacted there will be two phenomenon. Trumps credibility will drop. Also, when these states get impacted the credibility of these governors will drop and with it the Republican Party which will also drag down Trump.

If the rural areas have people dying in their houses because there is no medical facilities and bodies stored without refrigeration I think it will have a big impact on support for Trump by Trump supporters. Though they might decide it is all fake news or someone it is a 5G thing or some other lunacy.

When people know someone who has died, a relative, a friend, co-worker, fellow member of a church or organization dies, I think there will be a change of opinion.

But we will have to see.

SECOND THING

Fatality rate is likely to be highest with Donald Trump supporters. The fatality rate is highest with older people. The severity of the impact seems like it is going to be in places where social distancing is being resisted in conservative states and the rural areas.

There are anecdotal reports of older individuals mocking social distancing or defying it to make some type of political point. So you have higher risk individuals engaging in higher risk behavior.

You have Evangelical churches having services with large numbers of people there. They do risk the general public's health, but they more immediately risk the health of their members and their members friends and relatives. By example they also send a message to their members that these health issues are not to be taken seriously.

I don't think fatalities will constitute a number representing a large percentage of voters, but it will have some impact. Winning and losing an election can depend on really small numbers. It might be a state that goes for one presidential candidate rather than another. There could be impacts to other elections.

SUMMARY

We will just have to wait and see. None of the above factors may be the deciding issue. It might be that once things are over, upon reflection, the public may decide that it is a bad idea to have a clown in charge because things can happen. It may be realized that the White House isn't a TV show and needs to be run by someone who is able and has able people on his or her staff.

I am going to start getting ready to write the book. I want to have all the materialss at hand if it is a go.

ADDTIONAL NOTE:

I am safely isolated and avoiding all risks. I will be looking forward to pulling down the Confederacy when this crisis is over.