Monday, October 31, 2016

Apples and oranges, and the Texas Nationalist Movement

The Texas Nationalist Movement is announcing a report by an "independent researcher" which they claim shows that they are:
In comparison with all of these “acceptable” organizations, the Texas Nationalist Movement has the declared support of 2.11% of Texas voters. 
This report, the TNM asserts, shows that they are  a major organization and claimed to be one of the "major political advocacy organizations" in Texas. Who this "independent researcher" is is not mentioned. The Texas Nationalist movement explains:
The report compares the TNM to 10 other major political advocacy organizations by measuring their membership or declared support numbers as a percentage of registered voters in the geographic areas they serve.
They list percentages of the population or perhaps adults or perhaps voters or perhaps something which make up the "membership figures" for various organizations and the percentages are frequently less than 1%. That is what percent of the population or something which are members of various groups. They then compare their "2.11%" which is a much larger figure than many groups.

The key phrase to focus on in this announcement is "declared support." What that is isn't specified. Are they just taking the Facebook likes they have for their page, assume that they are all people in Texas, and divide by the Texas population. Are these dues paying members?

I would be interested in the "membership figures" for the Texas Nationalist Movement. Maybe they have a lot of members, maybe their claim is true. However, this article does not convince me.

Having 300,000 Facebook likes isn't insignificant, but it isn't the same as dues paying members.

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