COVID-19 and Secession Post two

I don't need to know until early July to start work on my Texas secession book if it appears that Donald Trump is not getting re-elected. On the other hand, secession movements will likely start gaining strength if it becomes really obvious that Trump isn't going to be re-elected. So the earlier I can figure out whether Trump is going to be re-elected or not the better.

I am still struggling with this. I have a couple other projects that are absorbing much of my time so I don't need to be working on Texas secession until I know it is going to happen. I think that there are two things to consider.

The following is an issue only if some treatment doesn't show up. There are anti-virals being tested and there might be one or two that works. Even if one is found, it remains to be seen if it is that effective and can be made available in large quantities and supplied quickly enough. If they can only supply enough for 5 or 10 percent of the cases it will have limited usefulness to stop a pandemic. It will help, but it might just slow the progression of the pandemic.

Vaccines will become available, but I think they won't be available for sometime, long after things have gotten fairly bad.

FIRST THING

I am beginning to believe Trump is not going to be re-elected. There is evidence that indicates that Trump is doing well in the polls and his approval ratings are jumped up significantly.

However, things are still early in this pandemic outbreak. The pandemic is starting to reach the rural areas and smaller towns. Take for instance this city.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/us/albany-georgia-coronavirus/index.html

Dougherty County has 85,000 people and have close to the number of Fulton County with one million people.  Rural areas don't have really good health facilities or don't have any.

The governor of Georgia who has resisted stay at home measures is now claiming that he didn't know asymptomatic COVID-19 individuals could spread coronavirus until just recently, which I don't think is going to be believed except by the most credulous.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/georgia-gov-brian-kemp-admits-he-just-learned-asymptomatic-people-n1174976

There is Arizona which isn't taking coronavirus seriously.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/02/arizona-coronavirus-pawn-shops-golf-courses-essential-businesses-160043

I think when these other states get really impacted there will be two phenomenon. Trumps credibility will drop. Also, when these states get impacted the credibility of these governors will drop and with it the Republican Party which will also drag down Trump.

If the rural areas have people dying in their houses because there is no medical facilities and bodies stored without refrigeration I think it will have a big impact on support for Trump by Trump supporters. Though they might decide it is all fake news or someone it is a 5G thing or some other lunacy.

When people know someone who has died, a relative, a friend, co-worker, fellow member of a church or organization dies, I think there will be a change of opinion.

But we will have to see.

SECOND THING

Fatality rate is likely to be highest with Donald Trump supporters. The fatality rate is highest with older people. The severity of the impact seems like it is going to be in places where social distancing is being resisted in conservative states and the rural areas.

There are anecdotal reports of older individuals mocking social distancing or defying it to make some type of political point. So you have higher risk individuals engaging in higher risk behavior.

You have Evangelical churches having services with large numbers of people there. They do risk the general public's health, but they more immediately risk the health of their members and their members friends and relatives. By example they also send a message to their members that these health issues are not to be taken seriously.

I don't think fatalities will constitute a number representing a large percentage of voters, but it will have some impact. Winning and losing an election can depend on really small numbers. It might be a state that goes for one presidential candidate rather than another. There could be impacts to other elections.

SUMMARY

We will just have to wait and see. None of the above factors may be the deciding issue. It might be that once things are over, upon reflection, the public may decide that it is a bad idea to have a clown in charge because things can happen. It may be realized that the White House isn't a TV show and needs to be run by someone who is able and has able people on his or her staff.

I am going to start getting ready to write the book. I want to have all the materialss at hand if it is a go.

ADDTIONAL NOTE:

I am safely isolated and avoiding all risks. I will be looking forward to pulling down the Confederacy when this crisis is over.

Secession and COVID-19: UPDATE1:

So before I discuss the topic I want to say two things. I am doing fine and I have enough supplies to stay inside for a considerable amount of time and being retired I don't have to go to work or take other risks.

The other topic will be covered at the end of this post, which is some basic information about COVID-19 with links to some reliable sources of information.

SECESSION AND COVID-19

I have expressed the opinion that as long as Trump is re-elected the secession movements are going to remain without support. I also thought that there was a good chance Trump might be elected. So I haven't revived my writing on the Texas nationalist movement. The manuscript is where it was the night of the election in 2016.

However, we now have a severe national disruption with COVID-19.  Trump has said a series of things which in retrospect look fairly stupid. On the other hand the conservative movementt of the Breitbart type,https://www.breitbart.com/ , are coming up with a counter narrative as to what is happening. So COVID-19 has become fully politicized.

If things go badly, such as the health  care system runs out of hospital beds and really sick people are sent away I think Trump will have very poor re-election chances. I think it hasn't been considered that during a pandemic it might be elderly sick people with the flu that can't get beds because they are taken up with COVID-19 patients.

For example in Texas there is this warning about Texas running out of hospital beds by late April, about 30 days from now.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/03/22/hospitals-will-run-out-of-beds-by-late-april-if-gov-abbott-doesnt-order-texans-to-stay-at-home-hospital-group-warns/

Then there is this is the latest count of new cases. (3/22/2020 Dallas Morning News (DMN) Sunday report)It is 36 new cases, with the county's total now reported as 131. Yesterday's DMN report it was 21 new cases with a total of 95. Friday, March 20, 2020 DMN report it was 19 cases, with a total of 74. Thursday, March 19, 2020 there were 20 new cases, for a total of 55. I am not exactly sure if the report is for the day or the report or the prior day.

UPDATE as of yesterday, April 1, 2020 there were 100 new cases and the total is 731. The number of cases is still increasing and increasing at a higher rate.
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/04/02/were-beginning-to-see-the-curve-rise-dallas-county-reports-record-100-new-coronavirus-cases/

So in three days the number of cases have more than doubled, about 2.5 times. However, this is a limited sample and the climbing numbers of cases might be due  to testing stations being opened so people can stop and get tested.

A week ago last Friday, the known number of cases in Dallas was 18. 3/13/2020, DMN. However, I would not use this data to construct an exponential curve. What I am trying to point out is that there could be in a week alot more cases, many times more cases than at the present.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/03/22/dallas-county-announces-second-death-36-new-coronavirus-cases/

If on the other hand there is a surge but it doesn't exceed the capacity of the health care system Trump will not be that badly impacted I speculate. Despite everything stupid he has said his supporters really don't care and they will vote for him. The real issue for them is not getting a Democrat elected and they would be willing to vote for a yellow dog or a sack of potatoes instead.

The other issue about a failing health care system is the health care providers getting sick. If most of the doctors are sick or quarentined along with other health care workers how does a hospital function? If there aren't

So what are the chances of the health care system getting overloaded or too many health care workers getting sick? I really don't know and I am watching day by day. Largely because I need to know if there will be emergency care if I get sick.

There has been alot of really inane alarmism. Mathematical illiterates are suddenly talking about exponential curves and with a few data points projecting millions of cases in 4 to 8 weeks. Besides using a few points to fit a curve and other idiocies these projections are just stupid. I have solved differential equations and in no way does the spead of a virus going to be that simple.

This isn't to say there can't be dire consequences, but I wish to warn people not to believe some these projections. If they use the word "exponential" they are idiots.

The basic problem is that we don't know how many people are out there with COVID-19. Until starting this week there has been little testing. The testing is largely of those who are sick and believe they might have it.

How many people are out there asymmtomatic or mild and spreading it we don't know. It might be quite a lot or it might not be enough to bring down the health care system.  Also, even if it is a lot of people, it  might be with the tough measures being taken it will be controlled.

So I am watching the numbers come in. The amount of testing is going way up and every person tested positive can be quarantined. On the other hand this virus takes some time to start exhibiting symptoms if it does, so we might find out in the next coupld of weeks a lot of people suddenly manifesting symptoms. In general we will have to just wait and see.

One factor I haven't seen discussed is the mortality rates versus age and the political implications. The chance of COVID-19 being fatal to a person contracting goes up stepply with age. It also impacts people with underlying health conditions which tend to go up with age. So though the gross average fatality rate might be about 1% for the general population, for the elderly it seems to be many times higher. Demographically these are much more likely to be Trump voters.

Asian Americans who being high income and who tend to be Republicans are very alienated by Trump's pandering to racist sentiment. It is likely to cost the Republicans a House district or two and maybe a U.S. Senate seat.

I think in about four weeks I think we will start seeing how this will play out politically. Of course even if it doesn't reach disasterous proportions, it might be that voter turn out will be much higher among young people who are finally motivated to vote, and want to vote Trump out.

I think political polarization is going to go way up. People in the cities impacted by Trump's incompetence are really angry.

COVID-19 is likely to be a public health issue right up to election day.

If Trump is not re-elected I think that secession movements will be quite active and get strong support. Not just because Trump is not elected, but because they will see a Democratic Party in power ready to aggressively push their agenda. The Democratic base is angry and will expect the Democrats to move.  This will likely cause a reaction with conservatives.

In the larger picture what is happening is unprecedented. In the end I am just guessing at what the issues might be and how they develop.

By the way there is even a right wing narrative that there really isn't a problem.

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/ron-paul/the-coronavirus-hoax/

COVID-19 INFORMATION

I would like to dispell those who are talking about fatality rates of 4% or more. The fatality rate for the general population appears to be somewhere between 0.6 to 1.5%.

The high rates reported are due to statistical bias of a skewed sample. So if I had a disease which had many of the people getting it not having symptoms of mild and others severely impacted or fatal it would depend very much on my sampling.

For example if there was an extensive testing of the public so we learned and included in our number those who are sick but don't have symptoms or mild, and we divided the number of fatalities by the total number we would get one rate of fatality.

On the other hand if we just took the number of people who should up at the hospital and divided that number into deaths we would get a much higher rate of fatality. The sample wouldn't include those who didn't have symptoms or were mild or those who weren't bad enough to show up at the hospital.

For other information I direct readers below. I just think people should be critically thinking about what is put out to the public and the fatality rate I find to be a big factor in getting people to panic. The rate is high, and it is many times higher than the flu, but it isn't the Black Death or Ebola either.

This is an excellent link for information about COVID-19. I regularly read them and they are really good in terms of their reporting and also being critical of what might be put out as information. It is fairly comprehensive and will answer any questions you might have.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/

Wondering if I got the current status of secession wrong./ "American Secession" by F.H. Buckley

I had concluded that the secession movements in America were moribund unless Donald Trump lost re-election as president. I also tend to think that Donald Trump will get re-elected. So secession movements will have to wait until 2024 to get traction.

However, it was brought to my attention by a colleague the book, "American Secession" by F.H. Buckley.  It is published by Encounter Books and I am not sure  who they are. It seems like they are some type of conservative or neoconservative publisher of the Encounter for Culture and Education non-profit corporation. On the dust jacket, besides the author and title is the warning, "The Looming Threat of a National Breakup."

https://www.encounterbooks.com/books/american-secession/

He is a Foundation Professor at George Mason University Scalia School of Law. He is senior editor at the conservative publiscation American Spectator, he has a column in the New York Post, and has written for a variety of prominent publications.

The author and the book has gotten some fair amount of coverage. Here are some links to news stories about the book.

https://dailycaller.com/2020/01/11/new-secession-movement-growing-america-f-h-buckley-book/

https://nypost.com/2020/01/24/how-to-avoid-americas-coming-secession-crisis/  This article is by F.H. Buckley.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/feb/20/embracing-the-state-secession-movement-make-americ/

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/buckley-is-america-on-the-brink-of-a-third-secession

C-Span had an article. Click on link to see all of the video.

https://www.c-span.org/video/?469400-3/washington-journal-fh-buckley-discusses-book-american-secession



In his New York Post article he says the United States is "overly big." He has neo-Confederate ideas about secession stating, "Originalists on the court might recall that the Framers at their 1787 Convention thought secession was very possible. Almost every delegate conceded that if one region or state wanted to leave the union, it was perfectly possible to do so."

But his focus is on liberal states seceding. 

I have noticed continuing discussion of secession elswhere. There was the idea that counties could secede from Virginia and join West Virginia. 

Here is a Feb. 29, 2020 article about secession in New York State. African Americans have risen to power in the New York State legislature and upstate conservative whites want to secede. 

It seems like a lot of rural areas want to secede and have their small populations get two U.S. Senators. 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/02/26/across-country-rural-communities-secede-states-why-column/4851817002/

Evidently the cause of rural areas seceding from their states is something being pushed by at least one conservative group.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/02/24/virginia-secession-movement-underscores-lefts-growing-contempt-for-rural-americans/

The reason seems to be nothing more than they are on the losing side of an election. Before when they were winning it was fine to be in a big state, but now that they are losing they are whining they want their own state. 

I am sure these proponents for small rural states see the disportionate influence of states like North Dakota (pop. 760,000) and South Dakota (880,000) with the having 4 U.S. Senators, even though  their total is 1.6 million out of 327.8 million. They are over represented about eight times. 

Some elected officials seem to be lunatics on the issue such as the governor of Idaho. 

https://www.corvallisadvocate.com/2020/idaho-governor-digs-rural-oregon-secession-movement-another-county-joins/

So I thought I need to re-think this secession issue. What was I missing? I came up with the following.

1. Trump is not seen as a sure thing for re-election. Maybe secessionists are reving up their movements thinking Trump is not going to be re-elected or maybe just preparing based on the chance that he might not be re-elected.  If there is a good possibility or an appreciable possibility perhaps some people will want to get involved in secession movements just in case. 

2. Some conservatives don't find Trump reactionary enough. Maybe since the country hasn't gone hard right or become a white dominated society yet, some conservatives and racist groups are thinking that they need to have secession to achieve their goals. I don't think this would drive the current revival of secession, though it might be a minor source driving secession talk. 

3. Some want to push liberals out of the nation to secure a conservative American future. This is what F.H. Buckley hints at when he suggests in his New York Post article, "Finally, there’s the president. I don’t think we’d see one who’d want to send in the Army to invade a state. Were he of the other party, he might even look at the electoral map and say, “Erring sister, depart in peace.” If California was an independent nation, the Republicans would have the electoral map locked up. On the other hand, California pays alot of tax money into the U.S. Treasury, is an economic powerhouse, and has a lot of the West Coast as its boundary.

However, I think that the above ideas of secession of a new nation aren't the only secession ideas that need to be considered. The revival of secessionist ideas may not to create a new nation but seize power in the existing nation. 

4. Subverting American democracy by forming rotten boroughs. The term "rotten borough" originates from 18th century politics in which there were boroughs that were very small but elected a member of parliment.  For example there was Old Sarum that had two members of parliment but only seven voters while Birmingham and Manchester had no MPs to represent them at all. See this British Library article. 

https://www.bl.uk/learning/histcitizen/21cc/struggle/chartists1/historicalsources/source2/reformact.html

The thing is that a series of newly created states you could have the U.S. Senate permanently biased towards a conservative majority. Six states of totally rural populations would have twelve U.S. Senators.

There is no reason to believe if a few rural states were carved out of larger states, the effort would be restricted to just six. A quick look at a map would show that you could make two dozen rural states easily which would added 48 senators, and do it without losing any Republican dominated states. Of course the credibility of the American government of being some type of reasonable constitutional arrangement would be defunct in the cities, but I am sure elites and conservatives would justify it. 

I think that this prospect is what is perhaps behind the revival of American secession. 

5. Intimidation of a state government. The threat to secede might be used to intimidate a state government. I think that the Democrats are basically corporate types who dont' want a fuss and don't have the firmness of character to not be intimidated. I think the Malhuer Refugee crisis shows how the Democrats are basically gutless. 

It could be that now secession is a form of expression with bravado of an antipathy to state governments, but what starts out as a shout or bravado can be the first step to being for something in earnest later.

The fact that a member of the establishment, F.H. Buckley, law professor, columnist, not some person living in a tent or rural compound, has expressed this about secession works to legitimize it. 

I think we have reason to be concerned about secession. I have gone over some actions which can be taken against secession and I urge the reader to think of their own. I think that there should be an anti-secession group formed for every state in which there is currently a secession movement or might be a secession movement. I see it a sort of emergency preparation. To get some preliminary organization going, at least getting opponents of secession grouped together, with the sharing of some basic ideas, so an anti-secession movement doesn't have to start from zero if a crisis arises.  

Neo-Confederate Pat Buchanan watching the collapse of neo-Confederacy/ Suggesting Civil War in Virginia over gun control.

I have been swamped with a huge project, but now I am going to have more time to keep track of the neo-Confederates.

UPDATE: 1/15/2020. It has started. https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/939b3y/virginia-declares-state-of-emergency-after-armed-militias-threaten-to-storm-the-capitol

There has been a state of emergency declared in Virginia since it has come to light that Militias have threatened to storm the Capitol.

ORIGINAL POST BELOW:

The neo-Confederates are losing Virginia and they aren't happy about it. Pat Buchanan published this article on the Lew Rockwell site. 

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/01/patrick-j-buchanan/the-culture-war-comes-to-the-old-dominion/

The article starts with a proposal by U.S. Congressional House Rep. Wexton to replace Robert E. Lee in the old capitol building with other possible civil rights heroes and also possibly Nat Turner.

Pat Buchanan spends some time denouncing Nat Turner.

Then he leads into the issue of the 2nd Amendment sanctuary counties and gun control proposals by the Democratic controlled Virginia legislature.

But the Assembly will be dealing soon with measures even more volatile.

On Jan. 20, “Lobby Day” at the Assembly, thousands of gun advocates, many openly armed, will be coming to Richmond to protest new gun laws Northam and his new Democratic majority campaigned on and are determined to deliver.

Already, 110 towns, cities and counties in Virginia have created “Second Amendment sanctuaries” where new state laws that restrict gun rights will not be enforced by local authorities.

Buchanan connects neo-Confederate Confederate nationalism with resistance to gun laws, he states, "Virginia is a former Confederate State with strong rural traditions and lax gun laws. Guns represent the strongest, reddest line against demographic changes." 

He states that the a group called the Oath Keepers is sending training teams to Virginia. Also a group called Three Percent is calling on "patriots" to go to Richmond. 

He also brings up the issue of abortion during the last tri-mester which he says is supported by the Virginia Democrats.  

He sees a new secession coming over these issues in Virginia and in the nation as a whole.

Unlike the seven states of the Deep South, Virginia did not vote to secede and leave the Union until President Lincoln issued his call to arms to put down the rebellion after the Confederates fired on Fort Sumter. ... 

Today, it appears a new secession is underway. Virginians are separating from each other over issues as deep and divisive — such as who can take innocent life and when — as those that divided us in 1861. 

As are the rest of their countrymen in this time of Trump.

I think that the potential for violence with the passage of gun control laws by the Virginia legislature as being very real. If violence breaks out what Trump might do will be another factor. He might intervene to overthrow the authority of the state of Virginia.

I have discussed in an earlier posting that the sanctuary movement was a form of secession or nullification and I think the neo-Confederates and other right wing groups are seeing it the same way.

This was my earlier assessment. I think events in Virginia could be explosive. I also think it is a preview of what might happen if Trump loses in 2020 and the Democrats are in control.

http://newtknight.blogspot.com/2019/12/the-sanctuary-movement-secession-and.html#.XhoTPEeeGiM

The Sanctuary movement, secession and nullification under another label. / Is a civil war coming. Status update.

In the United States there have been a series of sanctuary movements. First there were cities and counties and states having sanctuary for undocumented immigrants where one way or the other they defy the enforcement of immigration laws.

However, seeing a good strategy there is now a sanctuary movement for the 2nd Amendment of the U.S. Constitution which affirms the right to bear arms.

There is even a sanctuary city against abortion.

Let me list some links for background and then resume the discussion.

For sanctuary cities regarding immigration.

https://www.cnn.com/2017/01/25/politics/sanctuary-cities-explained/index.html

For guns.

https://nypost.com/2019/12/21/more-than-100-virginia-cities-counties-declare-themselves-gun-sanctuaries/

For abortion

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/3k3gq3/lawmakers-are-banning-abortions-in-cities-sanctuary-cities-for-the-unborn

I am not saying that the articles provided above are unbiased or broadly representative. They are there to show you that there are such movements and to give you some background.

These sanctuary movements are nullification pure and simple.  The spirit of John C. Calhoun lives in all of them.

It is profoundly anti-democratic.  Democracy isn't just supporting the government and the laws when you win, it is accepting defeat in an election and the consequences.

These movements are nothing more than the modern day version of "massive resistance." "Massive resistance" was the resistance to the civil rights movement in the mid-20th century.

Nullification is logically incoherent. If you can decide to ignore one law, why not ignore others. Also,  if laws by a national body are to be accepted upon a localities choosing then there really is no point for a national body.

Now nations do have internally autonomous regions and special acccomodations for localities. They are usually spelled out very clearly that the adjustments are for some areas of legislation and governace and not other areas. They exist because of a variety of historical factors.

Nullification is suggested whenever some law or another gets some locality upset and the local politicians seek to gain popularity by supporting it.

Nullification is secession by another way. Instead of formally seperating, you pick and choose what you want and don't want, and avoid any of the military issues. However, you are seceding from national government by parts.

There is a lot of speculation thrown out about a civil war in the United States. I am torn between seeing it as alarmism and between being alarmed myself.

I do seek the sanctuary movement is being a sort of practice for secession. It is defiance of the national law which could be a percursor for defiance of the national governement and identity.

It also gets people consciously involved with defying the national government. It is a practice session for defying the national government generally.

So is civil war coming? I don't know.  I have been seeing one element or another fall in place since Obama was re-elected president in 2012 when there were those secession petitions. Each one element in itself isn't all that significant, but accumulated one by one I think they work together to evolve in the public mind a new attitude towards national identity or more specifically the rejection of it.

If Donald Trump was impeached I think all the interstate highways in the United States would be blockaded by Trump supporters in less than 24 hours. American interstate highways go through long distances of very rural areas which are very pro-Trump. Trump supporters would regard it as the election results of 2016 being overturned. However, I think that the process of impeachment is now stalled at least until the 2020 national elections. Even then, even if the U.S. Senate is controlled by the Democrats, a 2/3rd majority is needed for impeachment. So impeachment is not happening.

If Trump is not re-elected I think secession movements will be revived from their current moribund existence, but if he is re-elected they will remain largely stagnant. I am tending at this moment of writing to think that Trump has a fairly good chance of re-election. I remember that the Democrats were very sure in 2018 there was going to be some massive "blue wave", and in the end it resulted in only getting control of the U.S. House by a slim majority.

However, there are other paths leading to secession movements taking off or a civil war like situation. This where Trump is re-elected, but the Republicans lose control of the U.S. Senate and don't regain the U.S. House. In this case the Democrats still won't be able to impeach Trump, but they will be able to subject him to all sorts of tactics to make his life miserable. There are likely to be endless congressional panels making inquiries about everyone and everything in the Trump administration. It will be ugly. Trump supporters might decide that their election victory in 2016 is being overturned and I can see that leading into real conflict.

This 2nd Amendment sanctuary movement by counties and cities versus state governments is a potential flash point for violent resistance. After this is a movement for guns and the laws are to regulate them which means there is the potential of their denial or being taken away. The possibility of violent conflict or a stand-off involving guns and threats of violence is fairly obvious.

It would be a training ground for armed resistance to a larger governmental movement and if the Democrats win the 2020 presidential election they would likely pass gun laws and I think that a movement of resistance armed with guns will be ongoing.

However, the issue of secession mostly rests on the results of the 2020 elections. There will be developments over time which I think will erode national identity or support for the nation state, but there will merely make it easier for civil war or secession when the historical window opens, but in and of themselves will not drive secession or civil war.

We just have to wait for the election results of 2020.

Texas establishment scared of Texas secessionists scaring away investors.

This is the Texas Monthly article in response to The Altantic article about secession.

https://www.texasmonthly.com/politics/texas-secessionists-2019/

This is The Atlantic article to which the Texas Monthly was responding. .

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/12/the-secessionist/600739

Now I have blogged on how the Texas Nationalist Movement has over represented itself and the support isn't as extensive as they claim in terms of activists. However, the Texas Monthly article is wrong and misleading by trying to say the support for Texas secession is miniscule or a trivial few.

They refer to the 2016 Texas State Republican Convention and that the issue was raised, what they don't mention, and don't mention in the article about the state convention for which they provide the link, is that the vote against secession was 16 to 14 with one abstention in the platform committee. This is not a marginal group of people and a reasonable sample group of representative Texas Republican Party leaders.

What is also not mentioned is that Texas Boys State voted for secession.

https://www.chron.com/news/politics/texas/article/Texas-Boys-State-votes-to-secede-for-Union-11247209.php

But more importantly opinion polls have showed a fair degree for support for secession. One of them showed that 60% of Trump supporters in Texas wanted to secede if Hillary Clinton was elected in 2016.

The Texas Monthly article tries to assert that the support for secession is trivial.

It’s not impossible to imagine things like the 2016 floor debate going differently at a future GOP convention—we do live in unpredictable times!—but for now, you can fill a few stadiums with people who like to fantasize about the idea of secession, but that still leaves a whopping 98.7 percent of the state full of people who are happy where they are.

I am not saying that there is a serious mass movement for secession in Texas at this point and if Donald Trump is re-elected in 2020 there won't be for at least four more years.

I am not saying even with Donald Trump not re-elected that it is a sure thing that there will be a mass secession movement.

I am saying two things.

1. This Texas Monthly article is very selective in what it chooses to evaluate the potential for a Texas secession movement in Texas and the extent of support and possible support.

2. Secession movements have a habit of going from obscurity to being significant. As scholars have pointed out nations are imagined. Imaginations are not cast in concrete but are full of flux. Secession is also a topic that is discussed much more now days.  We see nations will real secession movements and real possibilities of secession.

If there is wide spread alienation in Texas from the national government the Texas nationalist movement could suddenly be a mass movement.

What Texas Monthly is scared of is that some fund manager may start thinking things about what their funds exposure is to Texas mortgages. The moment there is even rumor that some fund managers are thinking of limiting exposure Texas real estate mortgages will have to pay a point or have maybe higher down payments or something.

Even worse will be trying to get corporations to locate to Texas when other potential sites will point out that they don't have a secession movement or the potential of armed right wing militias.

Then there is the issue of recruiting talent to Texas. They probably don't want to face even the remote possibility that there children will have to apply to immigrate into the United States. No one wants to move to loony land.

Impeachment and secession

I have commented on impeachment and secession before.

https://newtknight.blogspot.com/search?q=impeachment#.XY9Cd0Y2qiM

To summarize it, as long as Trump is in office and his agenda seems to be going forward the secession movements in the United States are going to be deflated.

The potential base of support for secession is also largely the base of support for Trump. A secession movement would be anti-Trump and so the secessionists aren't going to be making progress.

However, if Trump is not re-elected in 2020, whether it is because he is impeached and removed from office, or just loses the 2020 election the secession movement will be revived and maybe stronger than ever as the base for Trump loses all hope to advance their agenda in the US political system.

Of course if the U.S. House does impeach Trump, it has to go to the U.S. Senate for trial. The U.S. Senate with a Republican majority could just dismiss the whole thing.

At this point it might be that the impact on secession movements is that it gives the diehard supporters hope that there will be a change in their fortunes and keep going in their efforts, and perhaps a few people will start looking at secession movements as an alternative.

Working to destroy the nation. James Ronald Kennedy on the Abbeville Blog has a posting on Calexit

The posting of interest is:

https://www.abbevilleinstitute.org/blog/could-calexit-create-a-left-right-confederacy/


What James Ronald Kennedy (He has a twin who is a leading neo-Confederate) hopes is that there might develop a left/right alliance for secession and nullification.

http://www.kennedytwins.com/

This is not so fanciful. There was a left/right alliance against American overseas military adventures and some of the leftists were quite angry to be called out on it.

There are certainly a fair number of idiots who call themselves leftists who would support such an alliance for secession.

Nullification is an inanity which basically nullifies a nation's existence. If on some rationalization or some interpretation of the Constitution a state can nullify a federal law, you essentially don't have a nation. You just have 50 separate nations arising from the dissolution of the nation.

What is of interest is that the neo-Confederates are still on the prowl for some way to break up the nation. James Ronald Kennedy and his brother Walter Donald Kennedy get published in the Confederate Veteran, the official publication of the Sons of Confederate Veterans and have their books sold by this organization. The SCV has 30,000 members and significant resources and a headquarters which is substantial. This is not a group with a shack and a few members. They are able to promote ideas to a significant base.

The Abbeville Institute is also doing a reveal here. This is campaigning for the break up of the nation.

I have been discussing on this blog the Texas Nationalist movement. They are moribund at this time and will be until it starts appearing that Trump will not be able to carry out his agenda.

However, I think the neo-Confederates are perhaps also seeing hope for the revival of their agenda with the expected "blue wave" in which Democrats are expected to recapture control of the U.S. House. With the Democrats controlling the U.S. House the Democrats hope to undermine Donald Trump and go after Donald Trump in every and any way they can.

The group 538 looking at the polls sees a good chance that the Democrats will capture the House. They see a 6 out of 7 chance which is a really good chance. However as 538 states, it isn't 100% chance.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/

One thing the website shows is that with computers you can easily do all sorts of analyses. When I first started my engineering career, you did statistics with a pencil and paper or mechanical calculator if you were a student or an ordinary engineer. By the time of the end of my career I was routinely doing fairly sophisticated analysis with JMP software.

This is a rather detailed break down of the possible results for the U.S. House elections.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=rrpromo


The U.S. Senate is expected to remain in the hands of the Republicans. Odds are 5 to 6.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=rrpromo


So even if the U.S. House does fall into Democratic Party hands, it remains to be seen how much they can actually undermine Trump's agenda. I am sure they can certainly cause problems for Trump and I am very sure they can heat up the political situation even more than it is, a whole lot more.

However, the path of developments to support secession may work this way.

The Democrats in the U.S. House may not be able to hinder Trump as much as inflame an already quite polarized situation such that when in 2020 elections Trump is possibly defeated there will be a radicalized and really alienated base to support secession.

If the Democrats win in 2020 the so-called "left" secession movements will collapse. The right wing ones secessionist movements will start gaining support.

James Ronald Kennedy's idea of a left/right secession alliance developing is wrong. If the left is in control of the government the left secessionist movement will be moribund. If the right is in control of the government the right secession movements will be moribund. They won't be active at the same time.

However, I think Nov. 6, 2018 election will need to be over so we know what the political landscape. Also, it won't be until after Jan. 3, 2019 that we will know what the Democrats will be be doing. However, I think the Democrats have likely already been planning a fair amount as to what they want to do, so I think that the conflict with Trump will start immediately after Jan. 3, 2019.

However, between Nov. 6, 2018 to Jan. 3, 2019 there will likely be statements from the Democrats what they intend to do, speculation about what the Democrats will do, calls from groups as to what the Democrats should do, and right wing fear mongering on what the Democrats will do.

So between Nov. 6, 2018 and Jan. 3, 2019, I think secessionists will pick up some interest from the Trump base of supporters but not in terms of supporting secession. I think that the impetus of most Trump supporters will be to support Trump and not support secession. I think though privately they might give it some thought as I said, as a Plan B.

However, there is likely to be some Trump supporters which will decide that secession has become their option of choice and since the secession movements are somewhat small, even a very small fraction of the Trump base of supporters would be a big increase for the secessionist movement.

We are going to just have to wait until the evening of Nov. 6th or even the morning on Nov. 7th to see where things are heading.

My expectation is the Democrats will win control of the U.S. House and things will start heating up very shortly after the election results are known.

Texas Secession and the mid-term elections of 2018

The Texas secessionists are beginning to hope that the mid-term elections will get their movement started again.

This is their latest Texian Partisan article on the mid-term elections.

https://texianpartisan.com/democrats-favored-for-a-midterm-victory/


I don't know if the mid-term elections will really boost their fortunes. If the Democrats gain control of the U.S. House I am sure they will find many ways of bedeviling Donald Trump. I am sure there will be all sorts of hearings. So some conservatives will likely despair and look at secession as an option to realize their agenda.

However, others might decide that they need to stand with Trump more than ever and not desert him.

The Texas Republican Party might have a secession plank in their platform in 2020.

I do think that if the Democrats gain control of the U.S. House we are in for a real storm of political conflict.

We  are witnessing the neoliberal establishment fighting for control against this new establishment being formed by Donald Trump.  This not some struggle between neoliberals and neoconservatives, the Democratic Party establishment versus the Republican establishment. These factions were just teams in the same franchise. The struggle with Trump is a struggle whether the old regime will survive.

I am expect that when the Democrats take over the U.S. House there will be dozens of investigations started into anything and everything which the Democrats might think will work for them in the struggle. I think that things will be ferocious. There is already cases where people are run out of restaurants because of groups harassing them. We could have a situation of public disorder.

The Democrats might move to impeach. I think that might prove to be the start of revolutionary disorder. I blogged on this before.

https://newtknight.blogspot.com/search?q=impeachment#.W3HBjeg2qiM

The neoliberals if they in the end do win in 2020 and restore the Ancien Regime I think will, to paraphrase a famous saying, will have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.

The economic situations which had lead to wide spread discontent will still be there. A large part of the population will not see any hope in national politics. Trump maybe gone, but the discontent will still be present looking for a path to follow.

What is disturbing is that support for secession in polling is now high with many different demographic groups and across the nation.

So I think that if Trump falls secession movements will rise and they will face an opposition that is incompetent.

Secession and Gun Control, or "That was fast!"

In this earlier Feb. 2018  blog posting I concluded that I thought the ignition point to get secession movements going was likely to be the passage of gun control legislation.

https://newtknight.blogspot.com/2018/02/status-of-texas-secession-secessionists.html#.Wsigt4jBqiO

The comment about gun control was at the very end.  It is part of a lengthy assessment of the status of the Texas secessionists. To give a very brief assessment, the Texas secessionists aren't going to gain any traction as long as Trump is in office and the Republicans control the government.

I blogged about a news article about secession and gun control March 27, 2018.

https://newtknight.blogspot.com/2018/03/liberal-left-is-noticing-secession-and.html#.WsihuIjBqiM

A left/liberal website Think Progress reported on some fringe elements advocating secession to prevent gun control. This is the link to their article.

https://thinkprogress.org/why-do-these-patriots-hate-america-ec1a093a8df6/

So I saw a developing idea among fringe elements. Maybe some time some where this would have consequences. I was really surprised that the issue of gun control and secession would find its way into state legislatures this fast with the introduction of a bill into the South Carolina legislature calling for secession if there is federal gun control legislation.

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/382003-south-carolina-house-republicans-introduce-bill-to-consider-secession

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article208132169.html

It became an Associated Press story.

Reminds me of the statement by South Carolinian James L. Petigru that South Carolina in 1860 was too small to be a republic but too large to be an insane asylum.

From the AP article we learn the following:

A trio of state House Republicans on Thursday quietly introduced a bill that would allow lawmakers to debate seceding from the U.S. "if the federal government confiscates legally purchased firearms in this State."

 The chief sponsor is Rep. Mike Pitts who contradictorily also says:

Pitts, a longtime law officer and Army veteran, said his bill isn't a call for secession but merely a proposal to make the action possible if events warrant.

"I'm not promoting secession. I served this country, and I don't want to see it broken up."

I think this shows that Pitts thinks that secession is a little out there as an idea or perhaps he doesn't have coherent thinking.

However, this puts the idea in the news for both South Carolina and in North Carolina where the story was covered in the Charlotte Observer.  https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/state/south-carolina/article208132169.html  The story is identical to the article in The State.

It has gotten national coverage in the media and with the Internet the secession proposal in South Carolina can be accessed by a national audience.

Perhaps this is the next ultra position to show that you are really a strong supporter on gun control. Or maybe it isn't. It could be that the Republican leadership is ready to severely criticize the three Republican legislators. Or it could be that some other Republican legislators will join the effort to make sure they don't lose the next Republican primary. Or it could be both. I think I have covered all the possibilities there.

However, the fact that this is proposed at all is cause for concern. We don't hear calls for the resignation of these three Republicans by the Republican leadership.

It is another incremental step forward in the normalization of secession. A little here and a little there secession continues to be normalized.

The attitude of the media has been bemusement. The history of secession is that it seems comical or outlandish until it isn't.

Any political movement, anything new, starts first with imagining it. At this point we have secession being imagined. We don't have the imagining of the consequences, just some idealized fantasy of secession. I don't see any anti-secession movement getting people imagining the consequences. There is just bemusement.

There needs to be conceptualized some anti-secession strategies with some group having some ongoing focus on preventing secession. That way when a body of ideas is needed they will be developed and there will be something better than some slogan like, "Better Together." (Used in opposition to Scottish secession.)

The fundamental problem in getting people to take secession seriously is that people think that nations are composed of some solid material, maybe concrete, and indestructible. The reality is that nations are imagined and are composed of dreams. Once the dream is gone, the nations may have all the apparatuses of state power, but as imposing as they may seem, a nation dependent on them alone, and not the support of the general population is in a desperate situation.

The collapse of the Soviet Union should have taught the public that. It hasn't. The secessionists however, were quick learners regarding this. The neo-Confederate Kennedy twins discussed the Soviet Union in their second edition of "The South Was Right!" Other secessionists noticed.

Also, I fear that if secession starts getting some traction the opposition to it will be blunt and unthinking and act to enable secession. Opposition to secession needs to be grounded in the field of cultural geography and that field's understanding of nationalism. The reliance on force will be a losing strategy.

However, at this point secession has moved forward just an increment. Perhaps I can't really believe that this is going anywhere. Even to myself it seems outlandish. However, I think that it might turn out to be very real and a great danger.

Texas Secession at the 2016 Texas State Republican Party Convention

The debate over secession at the 2016 Texas State Republican Party Convention video has been released.

You can watch and listen at this link.

https://texasnationalist.com/news/video-released-of-republican-debate-on-texas-independence

The proposal was defeated by the platform committee 16 to 14.  Fairly close I think for a party that claims to be patriotic.

The relevance is that the Texas Nationalist Movement is planning to get some measure passed at the 2018 Texas State Republican Party convention.

https://texasnationalist.com/news/tnm-rpt-past-and-future-part-1


What is in this movements favor is there is no longer the presidential campaign of Ted Cruz to ferociously oppose it.

Against it is that Donald Trump did get elected president and to advocate secession would undermine him, and the potential base for secession is largely the same people who support Donald Trump.

The Republican Party state convention is June 14, 2018.

As I have explained before, the secession movement would only start up if its potential base lost hope in Trump or the Republican party's current ascendancy in national politics, or the federal government passing gun control legislation. None of these things is going to happen between now and the June 14, 2018 Republican Party state convention.

If, and I emphasize if, there is some "blue wave," in the 2018 Nov. elections, then the Texas secessionist movement will start gaining traction.

These page and video links are posted so people know what is surfacing in the Texas Republican Party.

This is the link for the Republican Party state convention.

https://www.texasgop.org/2018-convention/

Liberal/ Left is noticing secession and that gun control might drive it

The article is titled, "What's with these so-called 'patriots' calling for the breakup of America?"

https://thinkprogress.org/why-do-these-patriots-hate-america-ec1a093a8df6/

In this February 2018 I said that Texas secession would likely have an ignition point with the passage of gun control.

http://newtknight.blogspot.com/2018/02/status-of-texas-secession-secessionists.html#.Wrr3FYjBqiM

With the demonstrations for some type of control of fire arms after the Parkland school shootings it seems from the Think Progress article that this move towards secession to avoid gun control is starting.

It seems that the recent demonstrations for gun control have persons strongly opposed to gun control rattled and talk of secession has begun.

I knew that the protests had been large, but I didn't really think that the students had a chance, but maybe people against gun control are seeing that they do have a chance.

What needs to be remembered about these calls for secession or threats of secession is that they normalize secession. Maybe a person is just blowing off steam, but for what ever reason they talk about secession as a possibility means that this is no longer a taboo topic, or that there is a barrier between them and this position. They have taken this position once, so even if they lose interest, they have done so prior and there is no barrier psychological or intellectual to doing it again. There isn't a need to think through the issue, since in the past they had thought through the issue.

The percentage of people who have discussed secession increases a little or maybe more than a little. A larger population of those more open to secession than before is built up.

"Deep States" and Secession

There is this concept among the right wing or right populists about a "deep state." I am not sure what the formal definition of "deep state" is, or what would distinguish it from just cliques of special interests in and outside the government. Would the "military-industrial complex" referred to by President Eisenhower be a "deep state"?

It could be that the public now has adopted a term to refer to a bureaucracy that has been built up by special interests ascendant in prior presidential administrations. However, the idea that there is a bureaucracy with its own agenda and disdainful of popular elections is hardly new.

The hugely popular comedy, "Yes, Minister," with its sequel, "Yes, Prime Minister" portrayed a British bureaucracy which had its own agenda and did what it could to thwart the elected officials in any and every way it could. I don't know if it could be called the "deep state" since it seemed to encompass the entire British government excepting the elected officials. The first series ran on BBC from 1980 to 1984 and the sequel from 1986 to 1988. Episodes ran on PBS later.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yes_Minister

The movie, "A Very British Coup," has the government attempting to undermine a socialist prime minister, and then when the elections go the wrong way the final scene suggests that the elected government has been overthrown. In this case there is a formation within the government which is actively opposing a socialist prime minister. It was originally a novel published in 1982, and then adapted twice for television in both 1988 and 2012.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Very_British_Coup

The idea that the federal government is working to undermine and subvert the agenda of a newly elected president with a different direction for government isn't new either.

M.E. Bradford, neo-Confederate, paleoconservative, and racist reactionary saw the federal bureaucracy as an active enemy of the new direction of Ronald Reagan and also was very vocal in his concerns that the Washington establishment would undermine Reagan's agenda until it became clear that Reagan didn't really have much of an agenda himself. This was back in 1976 when Reagan was elected.

The above is to show that the idea of a grouping or clique of government officials operating with various levels of conspiratorial methods is not a new concept. It has been abroad in popular culture and now it is called "deep state."

What is interesting is this article at Politico that the majority believe or tend to believe that there is a "deep state."

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/19/poll-deep-state-470282

The results are 27% says the "deep state" definitely exists and 47% believe it probably exists. That totals up to 74%. Who says Americans are deeply divided?

Only 5% said they believe the "deep state" definitely doesn't exist, and 16% said it probably doesn't exist.

The impact on the issue of secession is the relation of the ideas of a "deep state" and "nationalism."

Nation's are elite projects. They were invented with the end of dynastic states to provide a vessel for governance. The statement with the formation of Italy, made by an Italian nationalist, that they have created Italy, and that now they must create Italians, actually applies to most western European states of any size.

If the Nation as a political vehicle is seen as a vehicle that is only beneficial to an elite unbounded by democracy and disdainful of it, the particular national idea loses support. Though secession has the idea that another smaller nation as a political vehicle can be kept from the control of elites because everyone is part of some smaller national identity. Currently the idea to counter the failings of nationalism is to launch another nationalism which can be expected to result in small petty states with small elites. In short the secession idea is to fight the consequence an idea with more of the same with hopes that it will turn out different because our nationality is so special.

Since there isn't really any alternate idea, secession will likely pick up support from the alienated. With 75% of Americans thinking the national government is a "deep state," I don't think that there will be a lot of interest in supporting the national government if it calls for personal sacrifice, and nations often need to consume personal sacrifice.

For secessionists it means that they can expect to have a body of alienated to recruit from. For national governments they will have to largely support themselves with the resources they have and not expect the public to make serious sacrifices if things get difficult. The national government can expect that they have ambivalent support. Historically this is the situation where seemingly imposing states find that their situation is very much at risk.

The federal government's actions against the Bundy Ranch and the occupiers of the Malheur Refuge show a government that doesn't feel they have strong popular support and act cautiously to avoid giving insurrectionists public sympathy. I can only imagine what would be the situation if somewhere there were several hundred people better organized, determined and planning serious insurrection.

This doesn't mean secession is the wave of the future. It just is another indication of the shift in the environment towards conditions favorable towards secessionists. It isn't that you have a big shift in support of secession, though it could be expected that there will be some increase of support for secession, especially if the Democrats are seen as the future of the national government.

The importance is that support for the government will be less. The national government can be packages inside the concept of a "deep state" which sounds ominous instead of the concept of the United States of American which has popular sympathy. A movement composed of a small percentage of highly motivated individuals when faced with a largely apathetic opposition is not in a bad position.

Again, this is just a development, and hopefully will remain an obscure footnote in national history.

New California, another move for a white ethnostate

In almost any election it is very likely if not inevitable that the vote will vary across the geographical space for which the election covers. In a city election some districts will vote more for one candidate and other districts, boroughs, wards or whatever they might be called will vote relatively more for another candidate.

Similarly in state elections and national elections.

If it is the case where all the sub-units have generally voted for one candidate or party there is little impetus for secession. However, if it is the case where one faction would have won in one geographical area where the other faction won in another geographical area and it is likely that it will continue that way and one faction is not likely to win in the foreseeable future we get the impetus for secession. Though this impetus will be likely not advance if still being in the larger polity means a lot of goodies.

A political faction will conclude it is better to be in charge of a small realm than to be subordinate in a larger realm. Suddenly many reasons will be brought up that the polity needs to be divided.

Across the United States there have arisen small movements that want to see a new state created out of larger states or the secession of a state form the United States, such as Vermont or Texas.

For the states it is usually the desire to create a new state out of some rural parts of the whole state.

There was an effort to make a state out of rural northeast counties of Colorado, an effort to make a state out of the eastern handle of Maryland, some northern counties of California wanted to have a state. These movement usually have a meeting, make a declaration, publish a map, design a flag and then fade into obscurity.

One obstacle is that many of these rural areas are kept afloat with money from the state and federal governments. The northern California counties were getting a lot of state support. You can't put food on the table by just being cranky.

The "Sagebrush" rebellion was motivated by the desire to exploit the public lands. Wanting other people's stuff is sanctified with all sorts of language.

Now we have a New California movement. We can expect the usual, a website, a flag, a declaration, etc. The title of  this article largely explains the basis of this movement, "Resisting the resistance: anti-liberal rage brews in California's right wing."

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/07/new-california-movement-rightwing-resistance-liberal-trump

The Guardian calls the movement "far-fetched." The thing about secession movements is that they have a history of being far-fetched until they aren't.

There doesn't seem to be a general understanding, left or right, that nations exist in the imagination and are believed in as a matter of self-interest.

At the 2016 Texas State Republican Party convention in Dallas the platform committee voted down a secession plank by only 16 to 14 with one abstention. In 2018 it will be interesting how the platform committee votes. In 2016 there was the Cruz presidential campaign which absolutely needed that there be no secession in the state platform. In 2018 if the Republicans have lost both the U.S. House and Senate, the Republican Party might go for secession in 2019.

Opinion polls in 2016 showed that 60% of Trump supporters in Texas supported secession if Hilary Clinton won.

Nations are built in the imagination and like things in the imagination can vanish.

One thing that is common in these secession movements, excepting Texas, is that they are rural white areas escaping from a larger more multiracial polity.

In Texas secession would not create a largely white state, but the Texas secessionists policies would likely create a state with a ruling white minority. One Texas secession group complained loudly about a federal judges decision against the suppression of voters. Texas has gotten civil rights largely if not entirely through the federal courts, and Texas secessionists know this.

Trump's victory in the presidential elections of 2016 have put secessionist agendas on hold. Their potential base will be supporting Trump and not secession until Trump is no longer seen as a viable option.

The upcoming elections of 2018 will be very important to the future of the secession movement. If the Democrats take over the U.S. House, and win many state legislatures, many Trump supporters won't see a future for themselves in an United States and will desire a disuniting.

As it is, a majority of Americans vote Democrat in Congressional elections and yet the U.S. House has a majority of Republicans. The Democrats for all their self-vaunted moral superiority on gerrymandering recently, historically have proven just as willing to gerrymander districts as the best of them. If the Republicans lose control of state houses, the Democrats will gerrymander with a passion, though what they call it should be amusing to hear.

Once it becomes clear in either 2018 or 2020 that there is no future for an alt-right in the United States, I think we will find out that secession movements will thrive. Some group will find that their rural white area is oppressed, even though it is likely getting a lot of government support, and see a need for a new state. The issue isn't the money, but race.

As for their prospects, the examples of the Bundy Ranch or the Malheur Wildlife Refuge show that the federal government doesn't seem to be able to take effective action against a small group with guns. Yes, some of the lack of action was not to give the fringe groups sympathy, but also, I think that the government knows these fringe elements are not so fringe and the federal government doesn't want to activate right wing popular support for them. This however is a tacit admission that there is a potential white resistance out there of such magnitude that it is a concern.

For those individuals who are located in regions where there might be a potential secession movement, some preparation should be done. Not necessarily a lot. Just think of what your strategies might be. Start a Facebook page against the secession movement. You don't necessarily have a lot to do, but you can at least start collecting together anti-secessionists and have a place for people to go if suddenly it gets serious.

For Texas I have this Facebook page and the page has some really basic things that could be done in case the situation gets serious.

https://www.facebook.com/TexansTruetotheUnion/

Also, I have detailed out some measures to cut into any potential secession movement. For example I have a posting in which I explain that individuals counties and cities can secede out of secession back into the United States.

The last post was Oct. 27, 2017 for when CNN mentioned me as a research resource on Kathleen Hartnett White, an advocate of secession in the magazine Texas Republic.

I am just doing about five or six postings a year.

What will be useful if the Texas secession movement gets going is some place where journalists and the public can get background information all in one place and have some effort they can join in right away.

This Facebook group is basically an emergency kit in case of developments. I think getting a counter-movement start quickly will be important.

Psychiatrists, Trump, 25 Amendment, and secession. UPDATE

When Donald Trump won the election a lot of people who might call themselves liberals suddenly put their powdered wigs on and started to talk in pious tones about the American Founders and the intent of the Electoral College and that the Electoral College should refuse to vote for Donald Trump.

This didn't happen. Had it happened I think it would be disastrous. A few people that most people had never heard of would have nullified an election. It would be a civil war. Imagine every highway in the nation blockaded in the rural counties of the nation. The national guard would have to be called out in every state of the nation.

Now there seems to be a movement to impeach Trump based on psychiatric opinion and the 25 Amendment to the Constitution.

Some members of Congress were foolish enough to invite a Yale Univ. psychiatry professor to speak to them to see if Trump could be impeached on grounds of mental health.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/03/trump-25th-amendment-mental-health-322625

Lawmakers concerned about President Donald Trump’s mental state summoned Yale University psychiatry professor Dr. Bandy X. Lee to Capitol Hill last month for two days of briefings about his recent behavior

This is stupid at so many levels.

First there is a whole history of psychiatry being used for political purposes and for social repression.

There is Soviet psychiatric abuse of dissidents. There is the infamous statement about Barry Goldwater supporters having mental issues. There is the whole history of anti-gay psychiatry. I am sure other examples could be given. Foucault's wrote "Madness and Civilization." Thomas Szasz wrote "The Myth of Mental Illness" and "The Manufacture of Madness." There is the book, "Diary of a Mad Housewife," about how a woman with an inane husband is told that she is crazy. 

Then there is the state of the "science" of psychology which is in disrepute. There is the whole business of scientific results not being replicated. Freud was exposed as a fraud. Perhaps you know that Carl Jung was a Nazi. 

Then there is the ongoing scandal of psychiatric hospitals declaring people insane to collect insurance money. I don't think there is a branch of medial practice or science with lower credibility with the public. 

Being obnoxious, rude, loathsome, inane, stupid, vacuous and vain are certainly undesirable qualities, but they are not insanity. 

However, all of the above means nothing to idiotic partisans. After all, Slate, the publication of the establishment actually published this article doing an analysis of Trump's signature. 

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/01/20/donald_trump_s_horrifying_signature_is_a_cry_for_help.html

The whole problem with psychology and psychiatry is that the profession and its practitioners have tended to see persons who don't share their opinions or beliefs as being mentally ill. 

I have the 25th Amendment supplied with a link at the end of this blog posting. 

The idea is that if the president is mentally unfit, the president could be declared unable to perform the duties of office. 

It is somewhat disturbing that even one congressional representative would have Bandy X. Lee doing a briefing. 

It isn't at all surprising that Bandy X. Lee is doing this. Lee is the editor of "The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump," a book with testimonials of "27 psychiatrists and mental health experts assessing the president's level of 'dangerousness.'" 

What might be impeachable is some dealings with a foreign power. However, I think that it needs to be something very clearly a betrayal of the United States, and clear, not to Democrats who are breathing heavy with panic alarm, but the general public. Misfiling paperwork or omitting a form or violating some obscure regulation isn't going to be enough. 

A belief in Democracy is the acceptance of losing the election. Obviously a lot of people haven't accepted losing the 2016 presidential election. 

The precedence for what is happening is a disturbing affair after another radical change in government, the election of Franklin Delano Roosevelt. This is the infamous Banker's Plot. 

https://www.npr.org/2012/02/12/145472726/when-the-bankers-plotted-to-overthrow-fdr

It needs to be pointed out that bad policy, wrong opinions, poor diplomacy, rudeness, vulgarity are not impeachable offenses. Otherwise someone on some pretext would be calling for the impeachment of any president within an hour of the president assuming office. 

The various right wing secessionist movements are dormant because Trump is the great hope of the demographic to whom they hope to appeal. They are waiting until Donald Trump is no longer seen as a hope for right-wing aspirations. This might happen with the 2018 elections if the Republicans lose both houses of the legislature to the Democrats. 

However, what would even more enable secessionists would be that Trump is removed from office on some basis that doesn't have credibility. It would tell Trump's demographic of supporters that even if they get someone they like elected to office the establishment will by some means or another remove that person from office. 

At the Texas Republican state convention in 2016 a secession resolution lost by only 16 to 14 with one abstention. There is support out there for secession.

If Trump is to be impeached it better be on grounds that are plain and clear and widely understood. Even then, it could really enable secessionists.

UPDATE:

There is a lot of discussion on how smart Trump is. I don't think it is particularly relevant. For those who think ridiculing Trump or dwelling on the extent of his intelligence is important they need to have a broader focus.

Trump has defeated first the Republican Party establishment, then the Democratic Party establishment in 2016. That doesn't mean that Trump is smart. It does mean that with whatever intelligence he has he figured out a way to defeat both establishments with very little resources.

I would use the word that Trump has cunning, but that word is often used when people who we would like to think aren't smart, out smart someone who we think are smart.

The issue is that Trump had a strategy, whether stumbled upon or cleverly devised, which worked well enough to get him elected against all odds.

We might consider that whatever he is doing is working for him. There are a lot of special elections that the Republican Party are losing where they should have been odds on favorites. However, Nov. 2018 is a ways away. How many people initially thought the 2016 Trump campaign was an amusing circus until it wasn't?

It could be that Trump is having a melt down and is crashing and crashing the Republican Party. It looks like he is. I just don't know. I don't think anyone really knows either. 

The 25th Amendment:

SECTION 1 

In case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the Vice President shall become President. 

SECTION 2 

Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress. 

SECTION 3 

Whenever the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and until he transmits to them a written declaration to the contrary, such powers and duties shall be discharged by the Vice President as Acting President. 

SECTION 4 

Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President. 

Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.

Courtesy of this page.

https://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/amendments/amendment-xxv?gclid=CjwKCAiAqIHTBRAVEiwA6TgJwwbZ2weBoR20K2-QOW8OG3amMjTnOfqPPrCCF27z8kyEqIZhO7kJ_hoC_gIQAvD_BwE

How real is the Texas Nationalist movement.

The Texas Nationalist movement has a Facebook page with 224,133 likes and 215,304 following it as of this morning 11/3/2017.

https://www.facebook.com/texasnatmov/

That is fairly impressive. There are web pages with a lot of content. The link below is to one page and you can then view a lot of material and other online pages from there.

https://texasnationalist.com/

However, exactly what is the extent of the Texas Nationalist Movement in terms of people.

I haven't found a board of directors or similar grouping for the organization. Is there an executive committee? Is there an editorial committee for their publications?

Has there been a statewide convention of members and delegates?

When did the head of the Texas Nationalist movement get elected? When is the term of office up? How are elections for the leadership conducted? More broadly how is the leadership selected? Is there a body that appoints the leaders?

The organization is still worth tracking. Even if it is largely a one person show it is still getting out to the public a secessionist message. It appears from reports that there is support for this organization by foreign powers.

If a real Texas secession movement gets underway it is likely that this organization will be pushed aside, but it will have performed a function of paving the way for a Texas secessionist movement. If there is a real movement, and I mean a movement of a significant number of people, I suspect that they will want to elect their leadership.

So far, Texas secession seems to be nothing more than online gripping. Despite all the Facebook likes the Texas nationalist movement was unable to get enough signatures to get a secession measure on the ballot in Texas.  The number of required signatures were 68 thousand some. Roughly a quarter of their Facebook likes.

http://newtknight.blogspot.com/2015/12/texas-nationalist-movement-petition.html#.WfxmoWhSyiM

On the other hand, Boys State in Texas decided to vote for the secession of Texas.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/06/26/in-a-first-texas-boys-state-votes-to-secede-from-the-union/?utm_term=.9423d43de525

As I reported earlier pressure applied to the Texas Republican Party nearly got secession in their 2016 platform. It lost by only 16 to 14.

These are some blog postings with more details.



With Donald Trump being president and his slogan being about making America great again, the Texas Nationalist movement seems to be stalled.

However, it would be wrong to dismiss the Texas Nationalist movement. They are putting out arguments for secession and they are building up a body of narratives of grievance. They are establishing awareness of their efforts and have people in various degrees of contact with them.

The future is opaque. It could happen in the course of events that there will be some sudden real interest in secession by reactionaries in Texas. For example the election of a Democrat to the presidency. These potential secessionists will find a ready made set of narratives to use for their efforts and a number of individuals who have given it some thought and are educated in the arguments for secession.

Secessionism in the body politic is like a herpes virus. It is there and usually unnoticed until the body politic is stressed and then there are sores. In 2016 it seemed that Texas secession might erupt.

http://www.chron.com/news/politics/election/article/Poll-Three-out-of-five-Texans-support-secession-9146807.php

One big question avoided by the Texas Nationalist movement is what about the regions, counties, cities, etc. that don't want to secede from the United States. I have raised this before.

http://newtknight.blogspot.com/2016/06/some-considerations-about-texas.html#.WfxoD2hSyiM

https://www.facebook.com/TexansTruetotheUnion/posts/1748950508659231

They also think that you can break up the nation with a 50.1% majority. A constitutional amendment takes 3/4 vote of states. I would think that you would want a super majority to make sure you don't make decisions based on transitory passions.

If it is all about determination I say that each county and city can have a say also. Secessionists are always localists for their particular national project but nationalists against any secessionists in their proposed nation. I wrote up a "Forever American Declaration." I am sure someone might write up something better.

https://www.facebook.com/TexansTruetotheUnion/photos/a.1734954363392179.1073741827.1686197881601161/1740219879532294/?type=3&theater

If there is a vote for secession the urban regions of Texas will likely be against it and expect their U.S. government to protect them and the U.S. government will be more than willing to do so. Similarly reprisals against American citizens in other parts of Texas.

The Texas nationalist movement is a right wing movement in a state that is increasingly not right wing, but has a right wing government sustained by gerrymandering. Texas nationalism is really a reactionary project by those who don't see a future political success in the United States for their reactionary agenda. There isn't a Texas nationalism as the Texas nationalist movement defines it across the general public.

Texas is changing. I think that a lot of Republicans are not willing to face that they might be a minority party in the future, so there are all these voter restriction laws being struck down by the courts. So I think when the change starts coming there might be a panicked irrational response that would provide an opening for Texas secessionists. The objective would be to have an independent state with likely voter qualifications that would maintain reactionary control. I wouldn't be surprised that a poll tax might be proposed, even property qualifications.

As of this time the Texas nationalist movement is fairly dormant, but it is there and there is a lot of potential for trouble in the future.

By the way there is a Facebook page against Texas secession.

https://www.facebook.com/TexansTruetotheUnion/

2 + 2 = ? The arithmetic of the Texas Nationalist Movement.

The Texas Nationalist movement, which I think has at least more than 10 members, has a web page with the headline, "HUGE!! 68% of U.S. Voters Open to Secession in Zogby Poll!"

Must be a sale on exclamation marks at Walmart.

https://texasnationalist.com/news/huge-68-of-u-s-voters-open-to-secession-in-zogby-poll

There is a link to this poll.
http://johnzogbystrategies.com/new-poll-on-americans-support-for-secession-webinar-on-tribal-analytics-and-trump-report-card/

The poll actually is about whether the Federal government should compel a seceding state to remain in the United States, but not whether the respondent supports secession.

Over Labor Day Weekend, a nationwide poll of 800 likely voters, conducted by John Zogby Strategies asked, among other questions, which view is closer to their own on the topic of secession; Statement A: If a majority of residents within a given state prefer to have the final say over their destiny without the control of Washington D.C. then let them have it – it is their right. Statement B: If residents within a given state were to take such a drastic measure and secede from the United States, the federal government would be justified in sending in the military to prevent secession from taking place.

There is a difference in the question of whether I would like a piece of chocolate cake versus whether I think people should be compelled to eat chocolate cake.

So in terms of whether the military should be called out, 32% agree. As to those who would just let the state go, 39% agree, and 29% are unsure. So in reality 39% of the voters support a state deciding to secede to not be compelled to remain in the United States. The polls doesn't ask if a person believes their state should secede.

So there isn't a ground swell for secession, there are people who don't believe a state should be compelled to remain.

You need to always be very careful in reading postings by the Texas Nationalist movement.

The question needs to be asked if a majority of a state wanted to secede but majorities in sections or regions didn't want to secede should these regions and sections be compelled to secede.

The think about secession is once adopted it has no logical stop. The logical conclusion is that the people on the 3400 block of East Swampy Avenue don't want people outside 3400 block of East Swampy Avenue  to tell them what to do, and the odd numbered houses are getting a little fed up with the even numbered houses on the block.

This might be very amusing but in the 2016 Texas Republican Party convention in Dallas, Texas the platform committee only voted down a secession plank by 16 to 14 with one abstaining. For a party that claims that it is patriotic you would think it would be 31 to 0.

Incidentally the Facebook against Texas secession is at this link.

https://www.facebook.com/TexansTruetotheUnion/