I don't need to know until early July to start work on my Texas secession book if it appears that Donald Trump is not getting re-elected. On the other hand, secession movements will likely start gaining strength if it becomes really obvious that Trump isn't going to be re-elected. So the earlier I can figure out whether Trump is going to be re-elected or not the better.
I am still struggling with this. I have a couple other projects that are absorbing much of my time so I don't need to be working on Texas secession until I know it is going to happen. I think that there are two things to consider.
The following is an issue only if some treatment doesn't show up. There are anti-virals being tested and there might be one or two that works. Even if one is found, it remains to be seen if it is that effective and can be made available in large quantities and supplied quickly enough. If they can only supply enough for 5 or 10 percent of the cases it will have limited usefulness to stop a pandemic. It will help, but it might just slow the progression of the pandemic.
Vaccines will become available, but I think they won't be available for sometime, long after things have gotten fairly bad.
FIRST THING
I am beginning to believe Trump is not going to be re-elected. There is evidence that indicates that Trump is doing well in the polls and his approval ratings are jumped up significantly.
However, things are still early in this pandemic outbreak. The pandemic is starting to reach the rural areas and smaller towns. Take for instance this city.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/us/albany-georgia-coronavirus/index.html
Dougherty County has 85,000 people and have close to the number of Fulton County with one million people. Rural areas don't have really good health facilities or don't have any.
The governor of Georgia who has resisted stay at home measures is now claiming that he didn't know asymptomatic COVID-19 individuals could spread coronavirus until just recently, which I don't think is going to be believed except by the most credulous.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/georgia-gov-brian-kemp-admits-he-just-learned-asymptomatic-people-n1174976
There is Arizona which isn't taking coronavirus seriously.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/02/arizona-coronavirus-pawn-shops-golf-courses-essential-businesses-160043
I think when these other states get really impacted there will be two phenomenon. Trumps credibility will drop. Also, when these states get impacted the credibility of these governors will drop and with it the Republican Party which will also drag down Trump.
If the rural areas have people dying in their houses because there is no medical facilities and bodies stored without refrigeration I think it will have a big impact on support for Trump by Trump supporters. Though they might decide it is all fake news or someone it is a 5G thing or some other lunacy.
When people know someone who has died, a relative, a friend, co-worker, fellow member of a church or organization dies, I think there will be a change of opinion.
But we will have to see.
SECOND THING
Fatality rate is likely to be highest with Donald Trump supporters. The fatality rate is highest with older people. The severity of the impact seems like it is going to be in places where social distancing is being resisted in conservative states and the rural areas.
There are anecdotal reports of older individuals mocking social distancing or defying it to make some type of political point. So you have higher risk individuals engaging in higher risk behavior.
You have Evangelical churches having services with large numbers of people there. They do risk the general public's health, but they more immediately risk the health of their members and their members friends and relatives. By example they also send a message to their members that these health issues are not to be taken seriously.
I don't think fatalities will constitute a number representing a large percentage of voters, but it will have some impact. Winning and losing an election can depend on really small numbers. It might be a state that goes for one presidential candidate rather than another. There could be impacts to other elections.
SUMMARY
We will just have to wait and see. None of the above factors may be the deciding issue. It might be that once things are over, upon reflection, the public may decide that it is a bad idea to have a clown in charge because things can happen. It may be realized that the White House isn't a TV show and needs to be run by someone who is able and has able people on his or her staff.
I am going to start getting ready to write the book. I want to have all the materialss at hand if it is a go.
ADDTIONAL NOTE:
I am safely isolated and avoiding all risks. I will be looking forward to pulling down the Confederacy when this crisis is over.
Showing posts with label Texas secession. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Texas secession. Show all posts
Thursday, April 02, 2020
Friday, November 08, 2019
Texas establishment scared of Texas secessionists scaring away investors.
This is the Texas Monthly article in response to The Altantic article about secession.
https://www.texasmonthly.com/politics/texas-secessionists-2019/
This is The Atlantic article to which the Texas Monthly was responding. .
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/12/the-secessionist/600739
Now I have blogged on how the Texas Nationalist Movement has over represented itself and the support isn't as extensive as they claim in terms of activists. However, the Texas Monthly article is wrong and misleading by trying to say the support for Texas secession is miniscule or a trivial few.
They refer to the 2016 Texas State Republican Convention and that the issue was raised, what they don't mention, and don't mention in the article about the state convention for which they provide the link, is that the vote against secession was 16 to 14 with one abstention in the platform committee. This is not a marginal group of people and a reasonable sample group of representative Texas Republican Party leaders.
What is also not mentioned is that Texas Boys State voted for secession.
https://www.chron.com/news/politics/texas/article/Texas-Boys-State-votes-to-secede-for-Union-11247209.php
But more importantly opinion polls have showed a fair degree for support for secession. One of them showed that 60% of Trump supporters in Texas wanted to secede if Hillary Clinton was elected in 2016.
The Texas Monthly article tries to assert that the support for secession is trivial.
I am not saying even with Donald Trump not re-elected that it is a sure thing that there will be a mass secession movement.
I am saying two things.
1. This Texas Monthly article is very selective in what it chooses to evaluate the potential for a Texas secession movement in Texas and the extent of support and possible support.
2. Secession movements have a habit of going from obscurity to being significant. As scholars have pointed out nations are imagined. Imaginations are not cast in concrete but are full of flux. Secession is also a topic that is discussed much more now days. We see nations will real secession movements and real possibilities of secession.
If there is wide spread alienation in Texas from the national government the Texas nationalist movement could suddenly be a mass movement.
What Texas Monthly is scared of is that some fund manager may start thinking things about what their funds exposure is to Texas mortgages. The moment there is even rumor that some fund managers are thinking of limiting exposure Texas real estate mortgages will have to pay a point or have maybe higher down payments or something.
Even worse will be trying to get corporations to locate to Texas when other potential sites will point out that they don't have a secession movement or the potential of armed right wing militias.
Then there is the issue of recruiting talent to Texas. They probably don't want to face even the remote possibility that there children will have to apply to immigrate into the United States. No one wants to move to loony land.
https://www.texasmonthly.com/politics/texas-secessionists-2019/
This is The Atlantic article to which the Texas Monthly was responding. .
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/12/the-secessionist/600739
Now I have blogged on how the Texas Nationalist Movement has over represented itself and the support isn't as extensive as they claim in terms of activists. However, the Texas Monthly article is wrong and misleading by trying to say the support for Texas secession is miniscule or a trivial few.
They refer to the 2016 Texas State Republican Convention and that the issue was raised, what they don't mention, and don't mention in the article about the state convention for which they provide the link, is that the vote against secession was 16 to 14 with one abstention in the platform committee. This is not a marginal group of people and a reasonable sample group of representative Texas Republican Party leaders.
What is also not mentioned is that Texas Boys State voted for secession.
https://www.chron.com/news/politics/texas/article/Texas-Boys-State-votes-to-secede-for-Union-11247209.php
But more importantly opinion polls have showed a fair degree for support for secession. One of them showed that 60% of Trump supporters in Texas wanted to secede if Hillary Clinton was elected in 2016.
The Texas Monthly article tries to assert that the support for secession is trivial.
It’s not impossible to imagine things like the 2016 floor debate going differently at a future GOP convention—we do live in unpredictable times!—but for now, you can fill a few stadiums with people who like to fantasize about the idea of secession, but that still leaves a whopping 98.7 percent of the state full of people who are happy where they are.I am not saying that there is a serious mass movement for secession in Texas at this point and if Donald Trump is re-elected in 2020 there won't be for at least four more years.
I am not saying even with Donald Trump not re-elected that it is a sure thing that there will be a mass secession movement.
I am saying two things.
1. This Texas Monthly article is very selective in what it chooses to evaluate the potential for a Texas secession movement in Texas and the extent of support and possible support.
2. Secession movements have a habit of going from obscurity to being significant. As scholars have pointed out nations are imagined. Imaginations are not cast in concrete but are full of flux. Secession is also a topic that is discussed much more now days. We see nations will real secession movements and real possibilities of secession.
If there is wide spread alienation in Texas from the national government the Texas nationalist movement could suddenly be a mass movement.
What Texas Monthly is scared of is that some fund manager may start thinking things about what their funds exposure is to Texas mortgages. The moment there is even rumor that some fund managers are thinking of limiting exposure Texas real estate mortgages will have to pay a point or have maybe higher down payments or something.
Even worse will be trying to get corporations to locate to Texas when other potential sites will point out that they don't have a secession movement or the potential of armed right wing militias.
Then there is the issue of recruiting talent to Texas. They probably don't want to face even the remote possibility that there children will have to apply to immigrate into the United States. No one wants to move to loony land.
Saturday, September 28, 2019
Impeachment and secession
I have commented on impeachment and secession before.
https://newtknight.blogspot.com/search?q=impeachment#.XY9Cd0Y2qiM
To summarize it, as long as Trump is in office and his agenda seems to be going forward the secession movements in the United States are going to be deflated.
The potential base of support for secession is also largely the base of support for Trump. A secession movement would be anti-Trump and so the secessionists aren't going to be making progress.
However, if Trump is not re-elected in 2020, whether it is because he is impeached and removed from office, or just loses the 2020 election the secession movement will be revived and maybe stronger than ever as the base for Trump loses all hope to advance their agenda in the US political system.
Of course if the U.S. House does impeach Trump, it has to go to the U.S. Senate for trial. The U.S. Senate with a Republican majority could just dismiss the whole thing.
At this point it might be that the impact on secession movements is that it gives the diehard supporters hope that there will be a change in their fortunes and keep going in their efforts, and perhaps a few people will start looking at secession movements as an alternative.
https://newtknight.blogspot.com/search?q=impeachment#.XY9Cd0Y2qiM
To summarize it, as long as Trump is in office and his agenda seems to be going forward the secession movements in the United States are going to be deflated.
The potential base of support for secession is also largely the base of support for Trump. A secession movement would be anti-Trump and so the secessionists aren't going to be making progress.
However, if Trump is not re-elected in 2020, whether it is because he is impeached and removed from office, or just loses the 2020 election the secession movement will be revived and maybe stronger than ever as the base for Trump loses all hope to advance their agenda in the US political system.
Of course if the U.S. House does impeach Trump, it has to go to the U.S. Senate for trial. The U.S. Senate with a Republican majority could just dismiss the whole thing.
At this point it might be that the impact on secession movements is that it gives the diehard supporters hope that there will be a change in their fortunes and keep going in their efforts, and perhaps a few people will start looking at secession movements as an alternative.
Monday, August 13, 2018
Texas Secession and the mid-term elections of 2018
The Texas secessionists are beginning to hope that the mid-term elections will get their movement started again.
This is their latest Texian Partisan article on the mid-term elections.
https://texianpartisan.com/democrats-favored-for-a-midterm-victory/
I don't know if the mid-term elections will really boost their fortunes. If the Democrats gain control of the U.S. House I am sure they will find many ways of bedeviling Donald Trump. I am sure there will be all sorts of hearings. So some conservatives will likely despair and look at secession as an option to realize their agenda.
However, others might decide that they need to stand with Trump more than ever and not desert him.
The Texas Republican Party might have a secession plank in their platform in 2020.
I do think that if the Democrats gain control of the U.S. House we are in for a real storm of political conflict.
We are witnessing the neoliberal establishment fighting for control against this new establishment being formed by Donald Trump. This not some struggle between neoliberals and neoconservatives, the Democratic Party establishment versus the Republican establishment. These factions were just teams in the same franchise. The struggle with Trump is a struggle whether the old regime will survive.
I am expect that when the Democrats take over the U.S. House there will be dozens of investigations started into anything and everything which the Democrats might think will work for them in the struggle. I think that things will be ferocious. There is already cases where people are run out of restaurants because of groups harassing them. We could have a situation of public disorder.
The Democrats might move to impeach. I think that might prove to be the start of revolutionary disorder. I blogged on this before.
https://newtknight.blogspot.com/search?q=impeachment#.W3HBjeg2qiM
The neoliberals if they in the end do win in 2020 and restore the Ancien Regime I think will, to paraphrase a famous saying, will have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
The economic situations which had lead to wide spread discontent will still be there. A large part of the population will not see any hope in national politics. Trump maybe gone, but the discontent will still be present looking for a path to follow.
What is disturbing is that support for secession in polling is now high with many different demographic groups and across the nation.
So I think that if Trump falls secession movements will rise and they will face an opposition that is incompetent.
This is their latest Texian Partisan article on the mid-term elections.
https://texianpartisan.com/democrats-favored-for-a-midterm-victory/
I don't know if the mid-term elections will really boost their fortunes. If the Democrats gain control of the U.S. House I am sure they will find many ways of bedeviling Donald Trump. I am sure there will be all sorts of hearings. So some conservatives will likely despair and look at secession as an option to realize their agenda.
However, others might decide that they need to stand with Trump more than ever and not desert him.
The Texas Republican Party might have a secession plank in their platform in 2020.
I do think that if the Democrats gain control of the U.S. House we are in for a real storm of political conflict.
We are witnessing the neoliberal establishment fighting for control against this new establishment being formed by Donald Trump. This not some struggle between neoliberals and neoconservatives, the Democratic Party establishment versus the Republican establishment. These factions were just teams in the same franchise. The struggle with Trump is a struggle whether the old regime will survive.
I am expect that when the Democrats take over the U.S. House there will be dozens of investigations started into anything and everything which the Democrats might think will work for them in the struggle. I think that things will be ferocious. There is already cases where people are run out of restaurants because of groups harassing them. We could have a situation of public disorder.
The Democrats might move to impeach. I think that might prove to be the start of revolutionary disorder. I blogged on this before.
https://newtknight.blogspot.com/search?q=impeachment#.W3HBjeg2qiM
The neoliberals if they in the end do win in 2020 and restore the Ancien Regime I think will, to paraphrase a famous saying, will have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
The economic situations which had lead to wide spread discontent will still be there. A large part of the population will not see any hope in national politics. Trump maybe gone, but the discontent will still be present looking for a path to follow.
What is disturbing is that support for secession in polling is now high with many different demographic groups and across the nation.
So I think that if Trump falls secession movements will rise and they will face an opposition that is incompetent.
Sunday, July 01, 2018
Texas Secession movement seems rather dead.
In 2016 a secession item almost became part of the Texas State Republican Party Platform. It was voted down by 16 to 14 with one abstention.
This year in 2018 secession as an issue it was missing at the Texas State Republican Party convention. There was no reporting of anything related to secession at the convention by either the press or the self-titled, Texas Nationalism Movement. https://tnm.me/.
With Trump in the White House any impetus behind Texas secession or as they like to call it, Texit, has largely evaporated except for a few die hard supporters.
The Texas Nationalist Movement, or perhaps is should be called the Daniel Miller Movement, is desperate in their publication Texas Partisan to find fault with Donald Trump from a right wing perspective.
https://texianpartisan.com/
The Texas Nationalist movement is really straining to wipe up resentment against the policies of Donald Trump. There is this attempt.
https://texianpartisan.com/washington-to-grab-up-texas-land-in-the-rio-grande-valley/
The potential base for Texas secession movement is the very group that would love a Wall with Mexico.
For any government to build a wall with another nation would involve eminent domain, that is government would acquire the land and would pay for it. If you were going to build something like this you would have to acquire land by eminent domain. Not saying that this wall is desirable or not, but any such wall over a long distance would require eminent domain.
The article is confused and lacking logic and somehow Trump is like Obama.
Persons who want a wall with Mexico will understand that eminent domain is necessary. I don't see how a Trump supporter or wall supporter would see this article as being a legitimate criticism of Trump or Trump's effort to build a wall with Mexico.
The Texas secession movement is going to be fading out unless the Republican Party's fortunes decline dramatically.
Right now the best they can hope for is that there is the "blue wave" in the 2018 mid-term elections and the Republicans lose the U.S. House. Whether that happens is subject to discussion and I am not sure that there is really a sure guide I can find. Special elections tend to indicate the Republicans are indeed in real trouble.
This analysis indicates that the "Blue Wave" is still likely.
https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/analysis-house-blue-wave-alive-well
However, the economy is improving and unemployment seems to be dropping. That may reduce any Blue Wave. Also, the election is still some months away. Something unforeseen might develop.
Even if the Democrats somehow capture the U.S. House I don't think that Trump's supporters will be all that disillusions. The Republicans will still have the U.S. Senate and Trump will still be in the White House. Trump supporters will be preoccupied with supporting Trump which Texit would undermine.
If there is no blue wave the Texit movement is going to be moribund until at least 2020.
At some point in the future Texas may not be a "Red State" in which case the ultimate reason for Texas secession, to create some reactionary nation, will no longer exist. The window of Texas secession is closing.
Further the Texas secession movement itself might be a reason for many Texas Republicans to vote for the Democrats. The business interests and professional societies and others who understand how the Texas economy is integrated with the American economy will be dead set against it.
A Texas secession movement that actually gets something into the Republican Party state platform might be the thing to make Texas a "Blue" state with a Democratic governor, and majorities in both houses of the Texas legislature.
The best is that the Texit movement can hope for a rural movement of crankiness.
This year in 2018 secession as an issue it was missing at the Texas State Republican Party convention. There was no reporting of anything related to secession at the convention by either the press or the self-titled, Texas Nationalism Movement. https://tnm.me/.
With Trump in the White House any impetus behind Texas secession or as they like to call it, Texit, has largely evaporated except for a few die hard supporters.
The Texas Nationalist Movement, or perhaps is should be called the Daniel Miller Movement, is desperate in their publication Texas Partisan to find fault with Donald Trump from a right wing perspective.
https://texianpartisan.com/
The Texas Nationalist movement is really straining to wipe up resentment against the policies of Donald Trump. There is this attempt.
https://texianpartisan.com/washington-to-grab-up-texas-land-in-the-rio-grande-valley/
The potential base for Texas secession movement is the very group that would love a Wall with Mexico.
For any government to build a wall with another nation would involve eminent domain, that is government would acquire the land and would pay for it. If you were going to build something like this you would have to acquire land by eminent domain. Not saying that this wall is desirable or not, but any such wall over a long distance would require eminent domain.
The article is confused and lacking logic and somehow Trump is like Obama.
Persons who want a wall with Mexico will understand that eminent domain is necessary. I don't see how a Trump supporter or wall supporter would see this article as being a legitimate criticism of Trump or Trump's effort to build a wall with Mexico.
The Texas secession movement is going to be fading out unless the Republican Party's fortunes decline dramatically.
Right now the best they can hope for is that there is the "blue wave" in the 2018 mid-term elections and the Republicans lose the U.S. House. Whether that happens is subject to discussion and I am not sure that there is really a sure guide I can find. Special elections tend to indicate the Republicans are indeed in real trouble.
This analysis indicates that the "Blue Wave" is still likely.
https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/analysis-house-blue-wave-alive-well
However, the economy is improving and unemployment seems to be dropping. That may reduce any Blue Wave. Also, the election is still some months away. Something unforeseen might develop.
Even if the Democrats somehow capture the U.S. House I don't think that Trump's supporters will be all that disillusions. The Republicans will still have the U.S. Senate and Trump will still be in the White House. Trump supporters will be preoccupied with supporting Trump which Texit would undermine.
If there is no blue wave the Texit movement is going to be moribund until at least 2020.
At some point in the future Texas may not be a "Red State" in which case the ultimate reason for Texas secession, to create some reactionary nation, will no longer exist. The window of Texas secession is closing.
Further the Texas secession movement itself might be a reason for many Texas Republicans to vote for the Democrats. The business interests and professional societies and others who understand how the Texas economy is integrated with the American economy will be dead set against it.
A Texas secession movement that actually gets something into the Republican Party state platform might be the thing to make Texas a "Blue" state with a Democratic governor, and majorities in both houses of the Texas legislature.
The best is that the Texit movement can hope for a rural movement of crankiness.
Sunday, April 01, 2018
Texas Secession at the 2016 Texas State Republican Party Convention
The debate over secession at the 2016 Texas State Republican Party Convention video has been released.
You can watch and listen at this link.
https://texasnationalist.com/news/video-released-of-republican-debate-on-texas-independence
The proposal was defeated by the platform committee 16 to 14. Fairly close I think for a party that claims to be patriotic.
The relevance is that the Texas Nationalist Movement is planning to get some measure passed at the 2018 Texas State Republican Party convention.
https://texasnationalist.com/news/tnm-rpt-past-and-future-part-1
What is in this movements favor is there is no longer the presidential campaign of Ted Cruz to ferociously oppose it.
Against it is that Donald Trump did get elected president and to advocate secession would undermine him, and the potential base for secession is largely the same people who support Donald Trump.
The Republican Party state convention is June 14, 2018.
As I have explained before, the secession movement would only start up if its potential base lost hope in Trump or the Republican party's current ascendancy in national politics, or the federal government passing gun control legislation. None of these things is going to happen between now and the June 14, 2018 Republican Party state convention.
If, and I emphasize if, there is some "blue wave," in the 2018 Nov. elections, then the Texas secessionist movement will start gaining traction.
These page and video links are posted so people know what is surfacing in the Texas Republican Party.
This is the link for the Republican Party state convention.
https://www.texasgop.org/2018-convention/
You can watch and listen at this link.
https://texasnationalist.com/news/video-released-of-republican-debate-on-texas-independence
The proposal was defeated by the platform committee 16 to 14. Fairly close I think for a party that claims to be patriotic.
The relevance is that the Texas Nationalist Movement is planning to get some measure passed at the 2018 Texas State Republican Party convention.
https://texasnationalist.com/news/tnm-rpt-past-and-future-part-1
What is in this movements favor is there is no longer the presidential campaign of Ted Cruz to ferociously oppose it.
Against it is that Donald Trump did get elected president and to advocate secession would undermine him, and the potential base for secession is largely the same people who support Donald Trump.
The Republican Party state convention is June 14, 2018.
As I have explained before, the secession movement would only start up if its potential base lost hope in Trump or the Republican party's current ascendancy in national politics, or the federal government passing gun control legislation. None of these things is going to happen between now and the June 14, 2018 Republican Party state convention.
If, and I emphasize if, there is some "blue wave," in the 2018 Nov. elections, then the Texas secessionist movement will start gaining traction.
These page and video links are posted so people know what is surfacing in the Texas Republican Party.
This is the link for the Republican Party state convention.
https://www.texasgop.org/2018-convention/
Tuesday, February 20, 2018
Status of Texas secession, secessionists still waiting for Donald Trump to fail or to convince people that Donald Trump has failed or will fail. Long term what is the movement's prospects.
The Texas secession movement still exists, and it seems to be what it always has been.
I am not aware of anyone in the "political class" doing any such analysis. The political class in Texas doesn't take secession here seriously.
In 2016 I was reviewing that a Hillary win would develop a strong interest in Texas secession based on polls about Texas secession surveying Texas Trump supporters and the polls showed that 60% of Texas Trump supporters would support secession, and I said that a Trump victory would deflate the movement, but in no way I said it would kill it.
Mostly media interest in Texas secession is that it is a novelty story.
I had this blog posting when I thought that Trump was likely going to lose.
http://newtknight.blogspot.com/2016/06/presidential-elections-and-secession.html#.WozMY6jBqiM
I re-iterated this opinion and pointed out that the Texas secessionists were afraid that Trump would win
http://newtknight.blogspot.com/2016/07/texas-nationalists-i-think-are-afraid.html#.WozMr6jBqiM
I point out that when Trump said the election was going to be stolen from him I thought the secessionists would greatly benefit from a Trump loss.
http://newtknight.blogspot.com/2016/08/secessionists-just-got-big-boost.html#.WozM5ajBqiM
Given that Hillary was projected to win I wrote this column.
http://newtknight.blogspot.com/2016/08/this-is-all-going-to-be-very-serious.html#.WozOO6jBqiM
After the election I wrote this:
http://newtknight.blogspot.com/2016/11/election-results-and-texas-nationalism.html#.WozOkajBqiM
After Trump won and Hillary Clinton lost I noticed that right wing secessionist movements had lost "impetus" and did the following blog posting
http://newtknight.blogspot.com/2016/12/prospects-for-right-wing-secessionists.html#.WozO-KjBqiM
But I didn't say it had "killed" the movement. I had said:
I saw a revival of the prospects of secessionists over time.
Miller has an interesting approach which shows his "skill" with numbers. He does a poll of people who are current supporters and he reports that only 1% of the supporters of Texas secession have given up.
This side-steps the issue about the possibility of Texas secession movement making any progress. I don't think anyone thought that current supporters of Texas secession would state that they have given up. The issue is whether the Texas secession movement could get a lot of popular interest, new members, and not be a small fringe movement. Miller rejects that he is leading a small fringe movement and likes to report numbers giving the idea that there is mass support for Texas secession. That is my impression of what his web pages are asserting.
True to what I thought the Texas secessionists strategy would by they are trying to show that Trump is failing, or isn't really the person his supporters thought he would be.
Here is one example about the "Lost Trump Presidency."
https://texianpartisan.com/the-lost-presidency/
However, it needs to be asked what are the prospects for Texas secessionists. So I will review some scenarios and assess them.
1. Trump is re-elected president in 2020. I know current electoral trends make this unlikely. Also, his base is mostly older and the Democrats is mostly younger, but there could be developments and Trump is re-elected. The economy might turn out to be especially good for working people.
If Trump is re-elected then the Texas secessionists will be a lingering movement with die hard supporters but waiting for some distant future where their potential base will become disenchanted with America.
2. Democrats do really well in the 2018 elections, capture the U.S. House and U.S. Senate. They will be doing their best to make Trump's life miserable and there will be bills passing the legislature and vetoed by Trump.
At this point I think that there will start to be disillusionment with the American future by the potential base of secessionists as they begin to conceptualize that the trajectory of American in politics is not going to go their way.
The secession movement could start going somewhere in Nov. 2018 if it is perceived that the Trump revolution is certainly going to be undone.
3. The Democrats by 2020 capture all three branches of government.
The Texas secessionists will certainly find a much broader base of support when the alienated right wing finds no hope in an American future, and only hope in a Texas future that is split off from America.
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER SECESSION WOULD STILL BE WORTH IT
Even if by 2020 the potential political base of Texas secession finally does choose secession what political prospects will secession have?
Texas continues to change at a fast rate. The younger generation is more liberal. People are moving into the state. The younger population is more multi-racial. There is considerable immigration from people whose ultimate origins are from outside the United States.
The goal of the Texas secessionists is to create a right wing state to escape from an increasingly liberal nation. If Texas is becoming liberal that defeats their purpose of secession.
However, this still isn't a obstacle for Texas secessionists. There might be a liberal majority with the current set of eligible voters but not with a set of voters created by a seceded Texas.
In this, I am not talking about some voter suppression tactic being done by the Republicans with voter id requirements etc. I am talking about radical measures such as reviving the poll tax and everything that was eliminated by the Voters Rights Act. I am talking about rejecting the 14th Amendment making African Americans voters. I am talking about really severe restrictions on who should be allowed to vote. Neo-Confederates and anti-civil rights activists reject the ratification of the 14th Amendment as being legal.
Some people don't think you should vote if you are receiving any government benefit. Others might have a poll tax of $20 an election and make it cumulative. If you have missed a few elections you might be asked for $60 for the missed elections and $20 for the current elections. Poll taxes also suppress voting indirectly because after you exclude poor people, the candidates that are running for office tend to seek to represent the interests of the more prosperous and not the interests of the poor and so voting for poor tends to be pointless and in this new Texas probably really need the money.
I am sure that there will be no citizenship based on birth in America if parents were not citizens.
Other restrictions could be added. Such is could be made that you have to be a resident in a place for a much longer time than now. That will tend to eliminate more people who aren't home owners. It will tend to exclude more poor people and those who move more.
So they could have an electoral majority once they chop off large segments of those currently allowed to vote.
I think that if the Texas secessionist movement starts really gaining support I think many will come to realize what their plans are for Texas and that they are entirely hostile to the interests of minorities, women, LGBT, and others.
Through a quirk in Texas law, it is possible to have a ballot issue on only one party's primary ballot. Primaries typically have lower turn out than the general election, involve more the more ideological elements of a political party.
So it could be possible that some secession resolution or measure might pass in the Republican Party primary.
One consequence would be that the partisan divides in Texas would be converted to divides over secession.
CIVIL STRIFE
If the Texan secessionist movement does get some wide spread interest among right wing and reactionary forces, what might be the consequences?
I think that they will find that even though they have significant levels of support among a certain base like the one that elected Trump, they will find that they still don't have a majority of Texans supporting them. In fact they might find that Texas secession has finally gotten significant attention from various political classes who are against it.
So winning elections won't be a path to secession and the secessionists will choose another path to secession, which is actions against the state and federal government and those who they see as opponents. That is obstruction, intimidation, and violence.
Also, if the secessionists think the composition of the electorate is wrongly determined they are not likely to respect elections.
Don't think that choosing these tactics is unlikely. The Bundy's still defy government law out west. The U.S. government took a long time to deal with a small band of right wing militia who took over the Malhuer Wildlife Refuge.
What would Texas be like if we had 30 such cases happening simultaneously?
CONCLUSION
I don't see Trump getting re-elected and the Democrats are winning some special elections in electoral units that previously would have been won by Republicans by a very wide margins.
Trump is doing very badly in the polls and I don't think the Democrats will put forth a candidate in 2020 with serious problems with getting elected.
So I think that the Texas secessionist movement might start reviving as soon as the Nov. 2018 elections are over, and the extent to which they revive will be determined by how well the Democrats do in the 2018 elections. It seems the Democrats might do very well.
If the Trump base feels that the Trump revolution is likely to be over at some point they will be looking for alternative venues for political action. I don't think they will be apathetic. They will likely feel aggrieved that Trump lost because they believe Trump lost because of some mechanization or manipulation and the election wasn't fair.
I don't think the surge in the purchase of guns during the Obama administration was due to the expectation that there was going to be some restriction on gun ownership. That was the reason given by some, but I think that there was some fear that with a African American president they no longer felt secure and wanted to be armed and in many cases heavily so.
I think the first ignition point will be the passage of some gun control measure by the Democrats.
On February 27, 2017 Daniel Miller in a Texian Partisan item in his regular column "Miller on Monday," the topic, "The rumors of our death."
He states:
Prior the Presidential election last November there was a belief among the political class here in Texas that a Hillary win would turn the Texas Nationalist Movement into an unstoppable juggernaut, and a Trump win would kill us.https://texianpartisan.com/miller-monday-rumors-death/
I am not aware of anyone in the "political class" doing any such analysis. The political class in Texas doesn't take secession here seriously.
In 2016 I was reviewing that a Hillary win would develop a strong interest in Texas secession based on polls about Texas secession surveying Texas Trump supporters and the polls showed that 60% of Texas Trump supporters would support secession, and I said that a Trump victory would deflate the movement, but in no way I said it would kill it.
Mostly media interest in Texas secession is that it is a novelty story.
I had this blog posting when I thought that Trump was likely going to lose.
http://newtknight.blogspot.com/2016/06/presidential-elections-and-secession.html#.WozMY6jBqiM
I re-iterated this opinion and pointed out that the Texas secessionists were afraid that Trump would win
http://newtknight.blogspot.com/2016/07/texas-nationalists-i-think-are-afraid.html#.WozMr6jBqiM
I point out that when Trump said the election was going to be stolen from him I thought the secessionists would greatly benefit from a Trump loss.
http://newtknight.blogspot.com/2016/08/secessionists-just-got-big-boost.html#.WozM5ajBqiM
Given that Hillary was projected to win I wrote this column.
http://newtknight.blogspot.com/2016/08/this-is-all-going-to-be-very-serious.html#.WozOO6jBqiM
After the election I wrote this:
http://newtknight.blogspot.com/2016/11/election-results-and-texas-nationalism.html#.WozOkajBqiM
After Trump won and Hillary Clinton lost I noticed that right wing secessionist movements had lost "impetus" and did the following blog posting
http://newtknight.blogspot.com/2016/12/prospects-for-right-wing-secessionists.html#.WozO-KjBqiM
But I didn't say it had "killed" the movement. I had said:
However, as time progresses I think that disillusionment with Trump will set in and the secession movement will revive and will be telling people, "I told you so!" Actually, long term, and by long term I mean 6 to 12 months, Trump's election will enable the secession movement. As Trump fails to turn the United States into whatever his supporter's right wing fantasy that they wanted was, these supporters will come to see national politics as hopeless to realize their objectives. Secession will get a hearing and have greater credibility.
I saw a revival of the prospects of secessionists over time.
Miller has an interesting approach which shows his "skill" with numbers. He does a poll of people who are current supporters and he reports that only 1% of the supporters of Texas secession have given up.
This side-steps the issue about the possibility of Texas secession movement making any progress. I don't think anyone thought that current supporters of Texas secession would state that they have given up. The issue is whether the Texas secession movement could get a lot of popular interest, new members, and not be a small fringe movement. Miller rejects that he is leading a small fringe movement and likes to report numbers giving the idea that there is mass support for Texas secession. That is my impression of what his web pages are asserting.
True to what I thought the Texas secessionists strategy would by they are trying to show that Trump is failing, or isn't really the person his supporters thought he would be.
Here is one example about the "Lost Trump Presidency."
https://texianpartisan.com/the-lost-presidency/
However, it needs to be asked what are the prospects for Texas secessionists. So I will review some scenarios and assess them.
1. Trump is re-elected president in 2020. I know current electoral trends make this unlikely. Also, his base is mostly older and the Democrats is mostly younger, but there could be developments and Trump is re-elected. The economy might turn out to be especially good for working people.
If Trump is re-elected then the Texas secessionists will be a lingering movement with die hard supporters but waiting for some distant future where their potential base will become disenchanted with America.
2. Democrats do really well in the 2018 elections, capture the U.S. House and U.S. Senate. They will be doing their best to make Trump's life miserable and there will be bills passing the legislature and vetoed by Trump.
At this point I think that there will start to be disillusionment with the American future by the potential base of secessionists as they begin to conceptualize that the trajectory of American in politics is not going to go their way.
The secession movement could start going somewhere in Nov. 2018 if it is perceived that the Trump revolution is certainly going to be undone.
3. The Democrats by 2020 capture all three branches of government.
The Texas secessionists will certainly find a much broader base of support when the alienated right wing finds no hope in an American future, and only hope in a Texas future that is split off from America.
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER SECESSION WOULD STILL BE WORTH IT
Even if by 2020 the potential political base of Texas secession finally does choose secession what political prospects will secession have?
Texas continues to change at a fast rate. The younger generation is more liberal. People are moving into the state. The younger population is more multi-racial. There is considerable immigration from people whose ultimate origins are from outside the United States.
The goal of the Texas secessionists is to create a right wing state to escape from an increasingly liberal nation. If Texas is becoming liberal that defeats their purpose of secession.
However, this still isn't a obstacle for Texas secessionists. There might be a liberal majority with the current set of eligible voters but not with a set of voters created by a seceded Texas.
In this, I am not talking about some voter suppression tactic being done by the Republicans with voter id requirements etc. I am talking about radical measures such as reviving the poll tax and everything that was eliminated by the Voters Rights Act. I am talking about rejecting the 14th Amendment making African Americans voters. I am talking about really severe restrictions on who should be allowed to vote. Neo-Confederates and anti-civil rights activists reject the ratification of the 14th Amendment as being legal.
Some people don't think you should vote if you are receiving any government benefit. Others might have a poll tax of $20 an election and make it cumulative. If you have missed a few elections you might be asked for $60 for the missed elections and $20 for the current elections. Poll taxes also suppress voting indirectly because after you exclude poor people, the candidates that are running for office tend to seek to represent the interests of the more prosperous and not the interests of the poor and so voting for poor tends to be pointless and in this new Texas probably really need the money.
I am sure that there will be no citizenship based on birth in America if parents were not citizens.
Other restrictions could be added. Such is could be made that you have to be a resident in a place for a much longer time than now. That will tend to eliminate more people who aren't home owners. It will tend to exclude more poor people and those who move more.
So they could have an electoral majority once they chop off large segments of those currently allowed to vote.
I think that if the Texas secessionist movement starts really gaining support I think many will come to realize what their plans are for Texas and that they are entirely hostile to the interests of minorities, women, LGBT, and others.
Through a quirk in Texas law, it is possible to have a ballot issue on only one party's primary ballot. Primaries typically have lower turn out than the general election, involve more the more ideological elements of a political party.
So it could be possible that some secession resolution or measure might pass in the Republican Party primary.
One consequence would be that the partisan divides in Texas would be converted to divides over secession.
CIVIL STRIFE
If the Texan secessionist movement does get some wide spread interest among right wing and reactionary forces, what might be the consequences?
I think that they will find that even though they have significant levels of support among a certain base like the one that elected Trump, they will find that they still don't have a majority of Texans supporting them. In fact they might find that Texas secession has finally gotten significant attention from various political classes who are against it.
So winning elections won't be a path to secession and the secessionists will choose another path to secession, which is actions against the state and federal government and those who they see as opponents. That is obstruction, intimidation, and violence.
Also, if the secessionists think the composition of the electorate is wrongly determined they are not likely to respect elections.
Don't think that choosing these tactics is unlikely. The Bundy's still defy government law out west. The U.S. government took a long time to deal with a small band of right wing militia who took over the Malhuer Wildlife Refuge.
What would Texas be like if we had 30 such cases happening simultaneously?
CONCLUSION
I don't see Trump getting re-elected and the Democrats are winning some special elections in electoral units that previously would have been won by Republicans by a very wide margins.
Trump is doing very badly in the polls and I don't think the Democrats will put forth a candidate in 2020 with serious problems with getting elected.
So I think that the Texas secessionist movement might start reviving as soon as the Nov. 2018 elections are over, and the extent to which they revive will be determined by how well the Democrats do in the 2018 elections. It seems the Democrats might do very well.
If the Trump base feels that the Trump revolution is likely to be over at some point they will be looking for alternative venues for political action. I don't think they will be apathetic. They will likely feel aggrieved that Trump lost because they believe Trump lost because of some mechanization or manipulation and the election wasn't fair.
I don't think the surge in the purchase of guns during the Obama administration was due to the expectation that there was going to be some restriction on gun ownership. That was the reason given by some, but I think that there was some fear that with a African American president they no longer felt secure and wanted to be armed and in many cases heavily so.
I think the first ignition point will be the passage of some gun control measure by the Democrats.
Friday, November 03, 2017
How real is the Texas Nationalist movement.
The Texas Nationalist movement has a Facebook page with 224,133 likes and 215,304 following it as of this morning 11/3/2017.
https://www.facebook.com/texasnatmov/
That is fairly impressive. There are web pages with a lot of content. The link below is to one page and you can then view a lot of material and other online pages from there.
https://texasnationalist.com/
However, exactly what is the extent of the Texas Nationalist Movement in terms of people.
I haven't found a board of directors or similar grouping for the organization. Is there an executive committee? Is there an editorial committee for their publications?
Has there been a statewide convention of members and delegates?
When did the head of the Texas Nationalist movement get elected? When is the term of office up? How are elections for the leadership conducted? More broadly how is the leadership selected? Is there a body that appoints the leaders?
The organization is still worth tracking. Even if it is largely a one person show it is still getting out to the public a secessionist message. It appears from reports that there is support for this organization by foreign powers.
If a real Texas secession movement gets underway it is likely that this organization will be pushed aside, but it will have performed a function of paving the way for a Texas secessionist movement. If there is a real movement, and I mean a movement of a significant number of people, I suspect that they will want to elect their leadership.
So far, Texas secession seems to be nothing more than online gripping. Despite all the Facebook likes the Texas nationalist movement was unable to get enough signatures to get a secession measure on the ballot in Texas. The number of required signatures were 68 thousand some. Roughly a quarter of their Facebook likes.
http://newtknight.blogspot.com/2015/12/texas-nationalist-movement-petition.html#.WfxmoWhSyiM
On the other hand, Boys State in Texas decided to vote for the secession of Texas.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/06/26/in-a-first-texas-boys-state-votes-to-secede-from-the-union/?utm_term=.9423d43de525
As I reported earlier pressure applied to the Texas Republican Party nearly got secession in their 2016 platform. It lost by only 16 to 14.
These are some blog postings with more details.
With Donald Trump being president and his slogan being about making America great again, the Texas Nationalist movement seems to be stalled.
However, it would be wrong to dismiss the Texas Nationalist movement. They are putting out arguments for secession and they are building up a body of narratives of grievance. They are establishing awareness of their efforts and have people in various degrees of contact with them.
The future is opaque. It could happen in the course of events that there will be some sudden real interest in secession by reactionaries in Texas. For example the election of a Democrat to the presidency. These potential secessionists will find a ready made set of narratives to use for their efforts and a number of individuals who have given it some thought and are educated in the arguments for secession.
Secessionism in the body politic is like a herpes virus. It is there and usually unnoticed until the body politic is stressed and then there are sores. In 2016 it seemed that Texas secession might erupt.
http://www.chron.com/news/politics/election/article/Poll-Three-out-of-five-Texans-support-secession-9146807.php
One big question avoided by the Texas Nationalist movement is what about the regions, counties, cities, etc. that don't want to secede from the United States. I have raised this before.
http://newtknight.blogspot.com/2016/06/some-considerations-about-texas.html#.WfxoD2hSyiM
https://www.facebook.com/TexansTruetotheUnion/posts/1748950508659231
They also think that you can break up the nation with a 50.1% majority. A constitutional amendment takes 3/4 vote of states. I would think that you would want a super majority to make sure you don't make decisions based on transitory passions.
If it is all about determination I say that each county and city can have a say also. Secessionists are always localists for their particular national project but nationalists against any secessionists in their proposed nation. I wrote up a "Forever American Declaration." I am sure someone might write up something better.
https://www.facebook.com/TexansTruetotheUnion/photos/a.1734954363392179.1073741827.1686197881601161/1740219879532294/?type=3&theater
If there is a vote for secession the urban regions of Texas will likely be against it and expect their U.S. government to protect them and the U.S. government will be more than willing to do so. Similarly reprisals against American citizens in other parts of Texas.
The Texas nationalist movement is a right wing movement in a state that is increasingly not right wing, but has a right wing government sustained by gerrymandering. Texas nationalism is really a reactionary project by those who don't see a future political success in the United States for their reactionary agenda. There isn't a Texas nationalism as the Texas nationalist movement defines it across the general public.
Texas is changing. I think that a lot of Republicans are not willing to face that they might be a minority party in the future, so there are all these voter restriction laws being struck down by the courts. So I think when the change starts coming there might be a panicked irrational response that would provide an opening for Texas secessionists. The objective would be to have an independent state with likely voter qualifications that would maintain reactionary control. I wouldn't be surprised that a poll tax might be proposed, even property qualifications.
As of this time the Texas nationalist movement is fairly dormant, but it is there and there is a lot of potential for trouble in the future.
By the way there is a Facebook page against Texas secession.
https://www.facebook.com/TexansTruetotheUnion/
https://www.facebook.com/texasnatmov/
That is fairly impressive. There are web pages with a lot of content. The link below is to one page and you can then view a lot of material and other online pages from there.
https://texasnationalist.com/
However, exactly what is the extent of the Texas Nationalist Movement in terms of people.
I haven't found a board of directors or similar grouping for the organization. Is there an executive committee? Is there an editorial committee for their publications?
Has there been a statewide convention of members and delegates?
When did the head of the Texas Nationalist movement get elected? When is the term of office up? How are elections for the leadership conducted? More broadly how is the leadership selected? Is there a body that appoints the leaders?
The organization is still worth tracking. Even if it is largely a one person show it is still getting out to the public a secessionist message. It appears from reports that there is support for this organization by foreign powers.
If a real Texas secession movement gets underway it is likely that this organization will be pushed aside, but it will have performed a function of paving the way for a Texas secessionist movement. If there is a real movement, and I mean a movement of a significant number of people, I suspect that they will want to elect their leadership.
So far, Texas secession seems to be nothing more than online gripping. Despite all the Facebook likes the Texas nationalist movement was unable to get enough signatures to get a secession measure on the ballot in Texas. The number of required signatures were 68 thousand some. Roughly a quarter of their Facebook likes.
http://newtknight.blogspot.com/2015/12/texas-nationalist-movement-petition.html#.WfxmoWhSyiM
On the other hand, Boys State in Texas decided to vote for the secession of Texas.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/06/26/in-a-first-texas-boys-state-votes-to-secede-from-the-union/?utm_term=.9423d43de525
As I reported earlier pressure applied to the Texas Republican Party nearly got secession in their 2016 platform. It lost by only 16 to 14.
These are some blog postings with more details.
With Donald Trump being president and his slogan being about making America great again, the Texas Nationalist movement seems to be stalled.
However, it would be wrong to dismiss the Texas Nationalist movement. They are putting out arguments for secession and they are building up a body of narratives of grievance. They are establishing awareness of their efforts and have people in various degrees of contact with them.
The future is opaque. It could happen in the course of events that there will be some sudden real interest in secession by reactionaries in Texas. For example the election of a Democrat to the presidency. These potential secessionists will find a ready made set of narratives to use for their efforts and a number of individuals who have given it some thought and are educated in the arguments for secession.
Secessionism in the body politic is like a herpes virus. It is there and usually unnoticed until the body politic is stressed and then there are sores. In 2016 it seemed that Texas secession might erupt.
http://www.chron.com/news/politics/election/article/Poll-Three-out-of-five-Texans-support-secession-9146807.php
One big question avoided by the Texas Nationalist movement is what about the regions, counties, cities, etc. that don't want to secede from the United States. I have raised this before.
http://newtknight.blogspot.com/2016/06/some-considerations-about-texas.html#.WfxoD2hSyiM
https://www.facebook.com/TexansTruetotheUnion/posts/1748950508659231
They also think that you can break up the nation with a 50.1% majority. A constitutional amendment takes 3/4 vote of states. I would think that you would want a super majority to make sure you don't make decisions based on transitory passions.
If it is all about determination I say that each county and city can have a say also. Secessionists are always localists for their particular national project but nationalists against any secessionists in their proposed nation. I wrote up a "Forever American Declaration." I am sure someone might write up something better.
https://www.facebook.com/TexansTruetotheUnion/photos/a.1734954363392179.1073741827.1686197881601161/1740219879532294/?type=3&theater
If there is a vote for secession the urban regions of Texas will likely be against it and expect their U.S. government to protect them and the U.S. government will be more than willing to do so. Similarly reprisals against American citizens in other parts of Texas.
The Texas nationalist movement is a right wing movement in a state that is increasingly not right wing, but has a right wing government sustained by gerrymandering. Texas nationalism is really a reactionary project by those who don't see a future political success in the United States for their reactionary agenda. There isn't a Texas nationalism as the Texas nationalist movement defines it across the general public.
Texas is changing. I think that a lot of Republicans are not willing to face that they might be a minority party in the future, so there are all these voter restriction laws being struck down by the courts. So I think when the change starts coming there might be a panicked irrational response that would provide an opening for Texas secessionists. The objective would be to have an independent state with likely voter qualifications that would maintain reactionary control. I wouldn't be surprised that a poll tax might be proposed, even property qualifications.
As of this time the Texas nationalist movement is fairly dormant, but it is there and there is a lot of potential for trouble in the future.
By the way there is a Facebook page against Texas secession.
https://www.facebook.com/TexansTruetotheUnion/
Thursday, November 02, 2017
2 + 2 = ? The arithmetic of the Texas Nationalist Movement.
The Texas Nationalist movement, which I think has at least more than 10 members, has a web page with the headline, "HUGE!! 68% of U.S. Voters Open to Secession in Zogby Poll!"
Must be a sale on exclamation marks at Walmart.
https://texasnationalist.com/news/huge-68-of-u-s-voters-open-to-secession-in-zogby-poll
There is a link to this poll.
http://johnzogbystrategies.com/new-poll-on-americans-support-for-secession-webinar-on-tribal-analytics-and-trump-report-card/
The poll actually is about whether the Federal government should compel a seceding state to remain in the United States, but not whether the respondent supports secession.
So in terms of whether the military should be called out, 32% agree. As to those who would just let the state go, 39% agree, and 29% are unsure. So in reality 39% of the voters support a state deciding to secede to not be compelled to remain in the United States. The polls doesn't ask if a person believes their state should secede.
So there isn't a ground swell for secession, there are people who don't believe a state should be compelled to remain.
You need to always be very careful in reading postings by the Texas Nationalist movement.
The question needs to be asked if a majority of a state wanted to secede but majorities in sections or regions didn't want to secede should these regions and sections be compelled to secede.
The think about secession is once adopted it has no logical stop. The logical conclusion is that the people on the 3400 block of East Swampy Avenue don't want people outside 3400 block of East Swampy Avenue to tell them what to do, and the odd numbered houses are getting a little fed up with the even numbered houses on the block.
This might be very amusing but in the 2016 Texas Republican Party convention in Dallas, Texas the platform committee only voted down a secession plank by 16 to 14 with one abstaining. For a party that claims that it is patriotic you would think it would be 31 to 0.
Incidentally the Facebook against Texas secession is at this link.
https://www.facebook.com/TexansTruetotheUnion/
Must be a sale on exclamation marks at Walmart.
https://texasnationalist.com/news/huge-68-of-u-s-voters-open-to-secession-in-zogby-poll
There is a link to this poll.
http://johnzogbystrategies.com/new-poll-on-americans-support-for-secession-webinar-on-tribal-analytics-and-trump-report-card/
The poll actually is about whether the Federal government should compel a seceding state to remain in the United States, but not whether the respondent supports secession.
There is a difference in the question of whether I would like a piece of chocolate cake versus whether I think people should be compelled to eat chocolate cake.
Over Labor Day Weekend, a nationwide poll of 800 likely voters, conducted by John Zogby Strategies asked, among other questions, which view is closer to their own on the topic of secession; Statement A: If a majority of residents within a given state prefer to have the final say over their destiny without the control of Washington D.C. then let them have it – it is their right. Statement B: If residents within a given state were to take such a drastic measure and secede from the United States, the federal government would be justified in sending in the military to prevent secession from taking place.
So in terms of whether the military should be called out, 32% agree. As to those who would just let the state go, 39% agree, and 29% are unsure. So in reality 39% of the voters support a state deciding to secede to not be compelled to remain in the United States. The polls doesn't ask if a person believes their state should secede.
So there isn't a ground swell for secession, there are people who don't believe a state should be compelled to remain.
You need to always be very careful in reading postings by the Texas Nationalist movement.
The question needs to be asked if a majority of a state wanted to secede but majorities in sections or regions didn't want to secede should these regions and sections be compelled to secede.
The think about secession is once adopted it has no logical stop. The logical conclusion is that the people on the 3400 block of East Swampy Avenue don't want people outside 3400 block of East Swampy Avenue to tell them what to do, and the odd numbered houses are getting a little fed up with the even numbered houses on the block.
This might be very amusing but in the 2016 Texas Republican Party convention in Dallas, Texas the platform committee only voted down a secession plank by 16 to 14 with one abstaining. For a party that claims that it is patriotic you would think it would be 31 to 0.
Incidentally the Facebook against Texas secession is at this link.
https://www.facebook.com/TexansTruetotheUnion/
Thursday, October 26, 2017
Kathleen Harnett-White and her article about Texas and secession in "Texas Republic" magazine is in the news. IMPORTANT UPDATE
Earlier this week I supplied Andrew Kaczynski the article that Kathleen Hartnett-White wrote for Texas Republic magazine about Texas being better off as an independent republic.
The article is online at this link:
http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/26/politics/kfile-hartnett-white-texas-independent-republic/index.html
You collect things and it sits on the shelf for years and years and you wonder if it will ever serve any purpose and 20 years later it does.
Do not confuse Texas Republic magazine with the Republic of Texas movement. Texas Republic was a publication of the Lynn Landrum Society. William Murchison did an interview for Southern Partisan magazine to introduce the magazine to its readers. It was a magazine for the right-wing in the Texas conservative establishment. In Texas the magazine wasn't fringe. Last issue was published in 1996.
The first issue was in dedicated to M.E. Bradford, a professor at the University of Dallas who spent his life trying to undermine civil rights in America. Bradford was the leading intellectual for the neo-Confederate movement and was a major figure in getting it started.
I sent Kaczynski some writes I did on the magazine also.
It should not be surprising that at the 2016 Texas State Republican Party convention that the vote against secession was only 16 to 14. It should not be surprising that Boys State in Texas voted for secession.
IMPORTANT UPDATE:
You can read the article that Kathleen Hartnett White wrote for Texas Republic at this link.
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4118046-KHW.html
OTHER UPDATES:
The story of Kathleen Hartnett White's essay in Texas Republic magazine is beginning to get some traction in the media. These are some other sites carrying the story.
https://www.rawstory.com/2017/10/trump-environmental-pick-once-claimed-texas-would-be-better-off-if-the-state-seceded-to-avoid-regulations-report/
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/357410-trump-environmental-nominee-texas-would-be-better-off-as-an
The article is online at this link:
http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/26/politics/kfile-hartnett-white-texas-independent-republic/index.html
You collect things and it sits on the shelf for years and years and you wonder if it will ever serve any purpose and 20 years later it does.
Do not confuse Texas Republic magazine with the Republic of Texas movement. Texas Republic was a publication of the Lynn Landrum Society. William Murchison did an interview for Southern Partisan magazine to introduce the magazine to its readers. It was a magazine for the right-wing in the Texas conservative establishment. In Texas the magazine wasn't fringe. Last issue was published in 1996.
The first issue was in dedicated to M.E. Bradford, a professor at the University of Dallas who spent his life trying to undermine civil rights in America. Bradford was the leading intellectual for the neo-Confederate movement and was a major figure in getting it started.
I sent Kaczynski some writes I did on the magazine also.
It should not be surprising that at the 2016 Texas State Republican Party convention that the vote against secession was only 16 to 14. It should not be surprising that Boys State in Texas voted for secession.
IMPORTANT UPDATE:
You can read the article that Kathleen Hartnett White wrote for Texas Republic at this link.
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4118046-KHW.html
OTHER UPDATES:
The story of Kathleen Hartnett White's essay in Texas Republic magazine is beginning to get some traction in the media. These are some other sites carrying the story.
https://www.rawstory.com/2017/10/trump-environmental-pick-once-claimed-texas-would-be-better-off-if-the-state-seceded-to-avoid-regulations-report/
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/357410-trump-environmental-nominee-texas-would-be-better-off-as-an
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