New California, another move for a white ethnostate

In almost any election it is very likely if not inevitable that the vote will vary across the geographical space for which the election covers. In a city election some districts will vote more for one candidate and other districts, boroughs, wards or whatever they might be called will vote relatively more for another candidate.

Similarly in state elections and national elections.

If it is the case where all the sub-units have generally voted for one candidate or party there is little impetus for secession. However, if it is the case where one faction would have won in one geographical area where the other faction won in another geographical area and it is likely that it will continue that way and one faction is not likely to win in the foreseeable future we get the impetus for secession. Though this impetus will be likely not advance if still being in the larger polity means a lot of goodies.

A political faction will conclude it is better to be in charge of a small realm than to be subordinate in a larger realm. Suddenly many reasons will be brought up that the polity needs to be divided.

Across the United States there have arisen small movements that want to see a new state created out of larger states or the secession of a state form the United States, such as Vermont or Texas.

For the states it is usually the desire to create a new state out of some rural parts of the whole state.

There was an effort to make a state out of rural northeast counties of Colorado, an effort to make a state out of the eastern handle of Maryland, some northern counties of California wanted to have a state. These movement usually have a meeting, make a declaration, publish a map, design a flag and then fade into obscurity.

One obstacle is that many of these rural areas are kept afloat with money from the state and federal governments. The northern California counties were getting a lot of state support. You can't put food on the table by just being cranky.

The "Sagebrush" rebellion was motivated by the desire to exploit the public lands. Wanting other people's stuff is sanctified with all sorts of language.

Now we have a New California movement. We can expect the usual, a website, a flag, a declaration, etc. The title of  this article largely explains the basis of this movement, "Resisting the resistance: anti-liberal rage brews in California's right wing."

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/07/new-california-movement-rightwing-resistance-liberal-trump

The Guardian calls the movement "far-fetched." The thing about secession movements is that they have a history of being far-fetched until they aren't.

There doesn't seem to be a general understanding, left or right, that nations exist in the imagination and are believed in as a matter of self-interest.

At the 2016 Texas State Republican Party convention in Dallas the platform committee voted down a secession plank by only 16 to 14 with one abstention. In 2018 it will be interesting how the platform committee votes. In 2016 there was the Cruz presidential campaign which absolutely needed that there be no secession in the state platform. In 2018 if the Republicans have lost both the U.S. House and Senate, the Republican Party might go for secession in 2019.

Opinion polls in 2016 showed that 60% of Trump supporters in Texas supported secession if Hilary Clinton won.

Nations are built in the imagination and like things in the imagination can vanish.

One thing that is common in these secession movements, excepting Texas, is that they are rural white areas escaping from a larger more multiracial polity.

In Texas secession would not create a largely white state, but the Texas secessionists policies would likely create a state with a ruling white minority. One Texas secession group complained loudly about a federal judges decision against the suppression of voters. Texas has gotten civil rights largely if not entirely through the federal courts, and Texas secessionists know this.

Trump's victory in the presidential elections of 2016 have put secessionist agendas on hold. Their potential base will be supporting Trump and not secession until Trump is no longer seen as a viable option.

The upcoming elections of 2018 will be very important to the future of the secession movement. If the Democrats take over the U.S. House, and win many state legislatures, many Trump supporters won't see a future for themselves in an United States and will desire a disuniting.

As it is, a majority of Americans vote Democrat in Congressional elections and yet the U.S. House has a majority of Republicans. The Democrats for all their self-vaunted moral superiority on gerrymandering recently, historically have proven just as willing to gerrymander districts as the best of them. If the Republicans lose control of state houses, the Democrats will gerrymander with a passion, though what they call it should be amusing to hear.

Once it becomes clear in either 2018 or 2020 that there is no future for an alt-right in the United States, I think we will find out that secession movements will thrive. Some group will find that their rural white area is oppressed, even though it is likely getting a lot of government support, and see a need for a new state. The issue isn't the money, but race.

As for their prospects, the examples of the Bundy Ranch or the Malheur Wildlife Refuge show that the federal government doesn't seem to be able to take effective action against a small group with guns. Yes, some of the lack of action was not to give the fringe groups sympathy, but also, I think that the government knows these fringe elements are not so fringe and the federal government doesn't want to activate right wing popular support for them. This however is a tacit admission that there is a potential white resistance out there of such magnitude that it is a concern.

For those individuals who are located in regions where there might be a potential secession movement, some preparation should be done. Not necessarily a lot. Just think of what your strategies might be. Start a Facebook page against the secession movement. You don't necessarily have a lot to do, but you can at least start collecting together anti-secessionists and have a place for people to go if suddenly it gets serious.

For Texas I have this Facebook page and the page has some really basic things that could be done in case the situation gets serious.

https://www.facebook.com/TexansTruetotheUnion/

Also, I have detailed out some measures to cut into any potential secession movement. For example I have a posting in which I explain that individuals counties and cities can secede out of secession back into the United States.

The last post was Oct. 27, 2017 for when CNN mentioned me as a research resource on Kathleen Hartnett White, an advocate of secession in the magazine Texas Republic.

I am just doing about five or six postings a year.

What will be useful if the Texas secession movement gets going is some place where journalists and the public can get background information all in one place and have some effort they can join in right away.

This Facebook group is basically an emergency kit in case of developments. I think getting a counter-movement start quickly will be important.