In the United States there have been a series of sanctuary movements. First there were cities and counties and states having sanctuary for undocumented immigrants where one way or the other they defy the enforcement of immigration laws.
However, seeing a good strategy there is now a sanctuary movement for the 2nd Amendment of the U.S. Constitution which affirms the right to bear arms.
There is even a sanctuary city against abortion.
Let me list some links for background and then resume the discussion.
For sanctuary cities regarding immigration.
https://www.cnn.com/2017/01/25/politics/sanctuary-cities-explained/index.html
For guns.
https://nypost.com/2019/12/21/more-than-100-virginia-cities-counties-declare-themselves-gun-sanctuaries/
For abortion
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/3k3gq3/lawmakers-are-banning-abortions-in-cities-sanctuary-cities-for-the-unborn
I am not saying that the articles provided above are unbiased or broadly representative. They are there to show you that there are such movements and to give you some background.
These sanctuary movements are nullification pure and simple. The spirit of John C. Calhoun lives in all of them.
It is profoundly anti-democratic. Democracy isn't just supporting the government and the laws when you win, it is accepting defeat in an election and the consequences.
These movements are nothing more than the modern day version of "massive resistance." "Massive resistance" was the resistance to the civil rights movement in the mid-20th century.
Nullification is logically incoherent. If you can decide to ignore one law, why not ignore others. Also, if laws by a national body are to be accepted upon a localities choosing then there really is no point for a national body.
Now nations do have internally autonomous regions and special acccomodations for localities. They are usually spelled out very clearly that the adjustments are for some areas of legislation and governace and not other areas. They exist because of a variety of historical factors.
Nullification is suggested whenever some law or another gets some locality upset and the local politicians seek to gain popularity by supporting it.
Nullification is secession by another way. Instead of formally seperating, you pick and choose what you want and don't want, and avoid any of the military issues. However, you are seceding from national government by parts.
There is a lot of speculation thrown out about a civil war in the United States. I am torn between seeing it as alarmism and between being alarmed myself.
I do seek the sanctuary movement is being a sort of practice for secession. It is defiance of the national law which could be a percursor for defiance of the national governement and identity.
It also gets people consciously involved with defying the national government. It is a practice session for defying the national government generally.
So is civil war coming? I don't know. I have been seeing one element or another fall in place since Obama was re-elected president in 2012 when there were those secession petitions. Each one element in itself isn't all that significant, but accumulated one by one I think they work together to evolve in the public mind a new attitude towards national identity or more specifically the rejection of it.
If Donald Trump was impeached I think all the interstate highways in the United States would be blockaded by Trump supporters in less than 24 hours. American interstate highways go through long distances of very rural areas which are very pro-Trump. Trump supporters would regard it as the election results of 2016 being overturned. However, I think that the process of impeachment is now stalled at least until the 2020 national elections. Even then, even if the U.S. Senate is controlled by the Democrats, a 2/3rd majority is needed for impeachment. So impeachment is not happening.
If Trump is not re-elected I think secession movements will be revived from their current moribund existence, but if he is re-elected they will remain largely stagnant. I am tending at this moment of writing to think that Trump has a fairly good chance of re-election. I remember that the Democrats were very sure in 2018 there was going to be some massive "blue wave", and in the end it resulted in only getting control of the U.S. House by a slim majority.
However, there are other paths leading to secession movements taking off or a civil war like situation. This where Trump is re-elected, but the Republicans lose control of the U.S. Senate and don't regain the U.S. House. In this case the Democrats still won't be able to impeach Trump, but they will be able to subject him to all sorts of tactics to make his life miserable. There are likely to be endless congressional panels making inquiries about everyone and everything in the Trump administration. It will be ugly. Trump supporters might decide that their election victory in 2016 is being overturned and I can see that leading into real conflict.
This 2nd Amendment sanctuary movement by counties and cities versus state governments is a potential flash point for violent resistance. After this is a movement for guns and the laws are to regulate them which means there is the potential of their denial or being taken away. The possibility of violent conflict or a stand-off involving guns and threats of violence is fairly obvious.
It would be a training ground for armed resistance to a larger governmental movement and if the Democrats win the 2020 presidential election they would likely pass gun laws and I think that a movement of resistance armed with guns will be ongoing.
However, the issue of secession mostly rests on the results of the 2020 elections. There will be developments over time which I think will erode national identity or support for the nation state, but there will merely make it easier for civil war or secession when the historical window opens, but in and of themselves will not drive secession or civil war.
We just have to wait for the election results of 2020.
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