Presidential Elections and secession

Currently it looks like apparent Republican Party presidential nominee Donald Trump is going to lose the election. He may not even get the nomination. The Republican Party is realizing that besides losing the Presidential election Trump might bring down the Republican party and they could lose both the U.S. House and U.S. Senate and lose several governorships.

The effort to just deny Trump the nomination is in progress.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/donald-trump-delegate-revolt-224634

I am sure at this point all the Trump delegates are aware of these efforts and will attend the Republican National Convention in a state of anxiety that this might happen. It could be really tense. I would not be surprised if there is a riot of delegates when the attempt to deny Trump the nomination occurs.

There are two scenarios here.

1. Trump does get the nomination and he loses in the general election and takes down a lot of Republicans with him at the local, state, and federal levels. The Democratic Party is in charge at the federal level and at many more local and state places.

The Trump supporters and the cranky faction of the conservative movement realize that within the American democratic system they have no future and that the political landscape is going to evolve to be more adverse towards their goals.

2. Trump is just denied the nomination and the Republican party crashes in the general election and Trump supporters are totally alienated from the political system.

In general some will look at Trump's ouster and the Democrats superdelegate system and lose faith in the political system. Again the cranky segment of the conservative movement will realize that they have no future in the political system.

In either scenario the cranky conservative faction will be looking for success in what avenues they can find. Secession, creaking a local polity where you are in the majority will be immediately obvious though also seen as facing some challenges. However, when the crankies don't have any options in the system, they will be forced to pursue what options are available.

Texas secession movement will take off. There will be other secession movements.

The polling for secession was fairly substantial among Republicans after the 2012 elections and at that time Republicans controlled the House and Senate and had hopes. After 2016 they won't have hopes.

Secession will become more a real thing in American politics.

Also, I really think that people need to stop quoting Supreme Court decisions against secession as if they mattered. These legal rulings and laws really don't count much in the matter of secession. National identity is a matter of the heart, or as Lincoln referred to the "mystic chords of memory." In modern cultural geography we state that "nations are imagined."

Once a group of people decided to leave by a good margin at some point they have a good chance of leaving. Unless it is a really small place. In the South we have populations that would be inherently against secession so secession once it is realized to be a serious threat will receive a serious opposition from substantial portions of the public and will not be able to go anywhere. There is the prospect of conflict though.

This is the anti-Secession Facebook page for Texas.

https://www.facebook.com/TexansTruetotheUnion/